{"id":199064,"date":"2024-03-09T15:00:23","date_gmt":"2024-03-09T15:00:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/?p=199064"},"modified":"2024-03-09T15:00:30","modified_gmt":"2024-03-09T15:00:30","slug":"are-we-in-a-recession-7-analysts-discuss-economic-crisis-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/are-we-in-a-recession-analysts-talk-economic-crisis","title":{"rendered":"Are We in a Recession? 7 Analysts Discuss Economic Crisis 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>As we are living in economically turbulent times, there is one burning question on investors\u2019 minds right now: Are we in a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/definition\/recession\">recession<\/a>?<\/p>\n<p>The answer depends on where they live. Some parts of the world slipped into a recession last year, while others are struggling to avoid economic problems.<\/p>\n<p>But how do analysts see the coming months, and when will the economy recover in the regions that have already been adversely affected?<\/p>\n<p>Here, we look at which countries could see their economy crash and whether there will be a US recession in the coming months.<\/p>\n<div class=\"su-note\"  style=\"border-color:#e5e54c;border-radius:\u201c3\u201dpx;-moz-border-radius:\u201c3\u201dpx;-webkit-border-radius:\u201c3\u201dpx;\"><div class=\"su-note-inner su-u-clearfix su-u-trim\" style=\"background-color:#FFFF66;border-color:#ffffff;color:#333333;border-radius:\u201c3\u201dpx;-moz-border-radius:\u201c3\u201dpx;-webkit-border-radius:\u201c3\u201dpx;\">\n<h2><span id=\"key_takeaways\">Key Takeaways<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>The UK and Japan are both technically in a recession after suffering two consecutive quarters of negative growth.<\/li>\n<li>More than half of chief economists expect the global economy to weaken in 2024, according to the World Economic Forum.<\/li>\n<li>Companies are increasingly confident that a soft landing is in prospect for the global economy, according to a report by Oxford Economics seen by Techopedia.<\/li>\n<li>Some analysts believe Germany will be the next country to enter a recession.<\/li>\n<li>Analysts and fund managers insist it\u2019s still possible to make money during a recession.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<div>\n    <section class=\"toc-sticky w-100 bg-white \">\n        <div class=\"toc-sticky__container container\">\n            <div class=\"toc-sticky__open d-flex align-items-end\" data-bs-toggle=\"collapse\"\n                 aria-controls=\"multiCollapse1\"\n                 data-bs-target=\"#multiCollapse1\">\n                <button\n                        class=\"btn btn-primary collapse-action-btn p-1 rounded-circle\"\n                        type=\"button\"\n                >\n                    <i class=\"icon-chevron-up\"><\/i>\n                <\/button>\n                <span id=\"toc-current-title\" class=\"d-flex align-items-center\">\n                    Table of Contents\n                <\/span>\n                <span class=\"toc-main-title-permanent\">Table of Contents<\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <div\n                    class=\"collapse my-3\"\n                    id=\"multiCollapse1\"\n            >\n                <ol class=\"StepProgress\">\n                                                                        <li class=\"StepProgress-item current\">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"key_takeaways\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"key_takeaways\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">Key Takeaways<\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                                                        <li class=\"StepProgress-item\">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"recession_news_how_do_things_stand\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"recession_news_how_do_things_stand\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">Recession News: How Do Things Stand?<\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                                                        <li class=\"StepProgress-item\">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"are_we_in_a_recession\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"are_we_in_a_recession\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">Are We in a Recession?<\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                                                        <li class=\"StepProgress-item\">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"is_a_recession_coming\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"is_a_recession_coming\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">Is a Recession Coming?<\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                                                        <li class=\"StepProgress-item\">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"the_bottom_line\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"the_bottom_line\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">The Bottom Line<\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                                                        <li class=\"StepProgress-item\">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"faqs\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"faqs\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">FAQs<\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                                                        <li class=\"StepProgress-item\">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"references\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"references\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">References<\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                    <\/ol>\n                <div class=\"toc-sticky__container__disperse\"><\/div>\n                <div class=\"toc-sticky__btn-top justify-content-center\">\n                    <button class=\"btn btn-link d-flex align-items-center\" onclick={btnTop()}><p>Show Full Guide<\/p><img decoding=\"async\"\n                                src=\"\/wp-content\/plugins\/table-of-contents\/assets\/images\/arrow-up-circle.svg\"\n                                alt=\"arrow-up-circle\">\n                    <\/button>\n                <\/div>\n            <\/div>\n        <\/div>\n    <\/section>\n    <div class=\"toc-sticky-list\">\n        <div class=\"toc-sticky__container container\">\n            <div class=\"toc-sticky__open d-flex align-items-end\" data-bs-toggle=\"collapse\" aria-controls=\"multiCollapse2\" data-bs-target=\"#multiCollapse2\">\n                <button class=\"btn btn-primary collapse-action-btn p-1 rounded-circle\"\n                        type=\"button\">\n                    <i class=\"icon-chevron-up up\"><\/i>\n                <\/button>\n                <span id=\"toc-current-title\" class=\"d-flex align-items-center\">\n                    Table of Contents\n                <\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <div  class=\"collapse my-3\" id=\"multiCollapse2\">\n                <ol class=\"StepProgress\">\n                    \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t                                                     <li class=\"StepProgress-item current \">\n                                                    <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                                <a data-id=\"key_takeaways\"\n                                   onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"key_takeaways\")\n                                   class=\"StepProgress-item__link\"\n                                   data-level=\"2\">Key Takeaways<\/a>\n                                                            <\/div>\n                                                    <\/li>\n                    \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t                                                     <li class=\"StepProgress-item \">\n                                                    <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                                <a data-id=\"recession_news_how_do_things_stand\"\n                                   onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"recession_news_how_do_things_stand\")\n                                   class=\"StepProgress-item__link\"\n                                   data-level=\"2\">Recession News: How Do Things Stand?<\/a>\n                                                            <\/div>\n                                                    <\/li>\n                    \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t                                                     <li class=\"StepProgress-item \">\n                                                    <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                                <a data-id=\"are_we_in_a_recession\"\n                                   onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"are_we_in_a_recession\")\n                                   class=\"StepProgress-item__link\"\n                                   data-level=\"2\">Are We in a Recession?<\/a>\n                                                            <\/div>\n                                                    <\/li>\n                    \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t <span class=\"show_moretoc\">Show Full Guide<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t                                                      <li class=\"StepProgress-item ms_hidetoc\">\n                                                    <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                                <a data-id=\"is_a_recession_coming\"\n                                   onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"is_a_recession_coming\")\n                                   class=\"StepProgress-item__link\"\n                                   data-level=\"2\">Is a Recession Coming?<\/a>\n                                                            <\/div>\n                                                    <\/li>\n                    \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t                                                      <li class=\"StepProgress-item ms_hidetoc\">\n                                                    <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                                <a data-id=\"the_bottom_line\"\n                                   onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"the_bottom_line\")\n                                   class=\"StepProgress-item__link\"\n                                   data-level=\"2\">The Bottom Line<\/a>\n                                                            <\/div>\n                                                    <\/li>\n                    \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t                                                      <li class=\"StepProgress-item ms_hidetoc\">\n                                                    <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                                <a data-id=\"faqs\"\n                                   onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"faqs\")\n                                   class=\"StepProgress-item__link\"\n                                   data-level=\"2\">FAQs<\/a>\n                                                            <\/div>\n                          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btnTop() {\n        const pageLegend = document.querySelector('#multiCollapse1');\n        document.querySelector('html').classList.remove('overflow-hidden');\n        pageLegend.classList.remove('overflow-auto');\n        pageLegend.style.height = 'auto';\n        window.scrollTo({\n            top: 0,\n            behavior: 'smooth'\n        });\n    }\n\n    const handleScrollToTitle = (id) => {\n        const el = document.getElementById(id);\n        const headerHeightDifference = window.innerWidth < 992 ? -30 : -15;\n        window.scrollTo({\n            top: el.offsetTop - 60 - headerHeightDifference - 10,\n        });\n    }\n<\/script>\n\n<h2><span id=\"recession_news_how_do_things_stand\">Recession News: How Do Things Stand?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>More than half of chief economists expect the global economy to weaken in 2024, according to a report from the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/agenda\/2024\/01\/economic-outlook-2024-recession-inflation\/#:~:text=The%20global%20economy%20is%20expected,fragmentation%20to%20accelerate%20in%202024.\" target=\"_blank\">World Economic Forum<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cUncertainty continues to be the name of the game for the economy in 2024,\u201d it stated. \u201cFor some economists, the global economy still looks rocky and could weaken further over the next year.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The study pointed out that these \u201cclouds of uncertainty\u201d over the economic outlook had been a recurring theme over the past year. It added:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cWith global economic activity remaining slow, financial conditions remaining tight and geopolitical tensions growing, much of the volatility is likely to remain this year.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<figure id=\"attachment_210000\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-210000\" style=\"width: 1390px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Are-We-in-a-Recession_-1.jpg\" alt=\"Global Economic Prospects\" width=\"1390\" height=\"1745\" class=\"wp-image-210000 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Are-We-in-a-Recession_-1.jpg 1390w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Are-We-in-a-Recession_-1-239x300.jpg 239w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Are-We-in-a-Recession_-1-816x1024.jpg 816w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Are-We-in-a-Recession_-1-768x964.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Are-We-in-a-Recession_-1-1224x1536.jpg 1224w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/Are-We-in-a-Recession_-1-1200x1506.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1390px) 100vw, 1390px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-210000\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: World Economic Forum<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><span id=\"are_we_in_a_recession\">Are We in a Recession?<\/span><\/h2>\n<h3>Some Countries Already Hit Problems<\/h3>\n<p>But has the economic collapse predicted already happened in some markets? Are we in a recession right now?<\/p>\n<p>The answer is yes if you live in either the UK or Japan, as both have suffered an economic recession in recent months.<\/p>\n<p>The UK\u2019s real <a href=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/definition\/gross-domestic-product-gdp\">gross domestic product<\/a> (GDP) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/economy\/grossdomesticproductgdp\/bulletins\/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk\/octobertodecember2023\" target=\"_blank\">fell 0.3%<\/a> in the fourth quarter (October to December) of 2023, following a 0.1% drop between July and September, according to official figures.<\/p>\n<p>While two consecutive negative quarters is <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.ons.gov.uk\/2022\/11\/11\/uncertainty-and-the-r-word-what-exactly-is-a-recession\/\" target=\"_blank\">technically a recession<\/a>, it\u2019s difficult to have a rigid, formal definition, according to <strong>Darren Morgan, director of economic statistics production and analysis at the UK\u2019s Office for National Statistics<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>He pointed out:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cIf an economy shrinks by 0.1% for two quarters running, but in the quarters either side grows strongly, is this really a recession or perhaps just a lack of GDP growth for particular one-off reasons?\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Japan, meanwhile, unexpectedly <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/asia\/japans-economy-slips-into-recession-weak-domestic-demand-2024-02-15\/\" target=\"_blank\">slipped into recession<\/a> at the end of 2023 as its GDP shrunk for two straight quarters. It subsequently lost its position as the world\u2019s third-largest economy to Germany.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_209995\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-209995\" style=\"width: 1280px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/large-Are-We-in-a-Recession_-2.jpg\" alt=\"Real GDP Estimates\" width=\"1280\" height=\"1000\" class=\"wp-image-209995 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/large-Are-We-in-a-Recession_-2.jpg 1280w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/large-Are-We-in-a-Recession_-2-300x234.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/large-Are-We-in-a-Recession_-2-1024x800.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/large-Are-We-in-a-Recession_-2-768x600.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/large-Are-We-in-a-Recession_-2-1200x938.jpg 1200w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1280px) 100vw, 1280px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-209995\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: Office for National Statistics<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2><span id=\"is_a_recession_coming\">Is a Recession Coming?<\/span><\/h2>\n<h3>What Do Businesses Think?<\/h3>\n<p>Companies are increasingly confident that a soft landing is in prospect, according to the Global Business Sentiment Index from Oxford Economics.<\/p>\n<p>The study found they expected global growth to remain relatively stable over the coming year \u2013 in contrast to how they felt three months ago in the aftermath of the Hamas attack on Israel.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jamie Thompson, head of macro scenarios at Oxford Economics<\/strong>, said businesses had become less concerned over downside risks to the global economy.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cRespondents on average perceive a 7% probability of global recession in 2024, down from 18% in October,\u201d he wrote. \u201cThey also see only a minimal chance \u2013 less than 1-in-100 \u2013 of an economic slump on the scale experienced in 2009 during the global financial crisis.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Their views appear to be backed up by the statistics, with global growth <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2024\/01\/30\/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024\" target=\"_blank\">projected at 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025<\/a>, according to the International Monetary Fund.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_209998\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-209998\" style=\"width: 743px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/large-Are-We-in-a-Recession_-3.jpg\" alt=\"World Economic Outlook Growth Projections\" width=\"743\" height=\"1280\" class=\"wp-image-209998 size-full\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/large-Are-We-in-a-Recession_-3.jpg 743w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/large-Are-We-in-a-Recession_-3-174x300.jpg 174w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/large-Are-We-in-a-Recession_-3-594x1024.jpg 594w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 743px) 100vw, 743px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-209998\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Source: International Monetary Fund<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h3>What Do Analysts Think?<\/h3>\n<p>But what are the views of analysts, economists and fund managers when they are asked: will there be a recession across the world?<\/p>\n<p>There is also the question of whether they\u2019re expecting a full economic collapse or a silent recession, which is when the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/definition\/stock-market\">stock market<\/a> is stable, unemployment is low, but people are still financially struggling.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Adam Vettese, market analyst at eToro<\/strong>, believes Japan and the UK falling into recession has fuelled concerns about global growth while being a \u201cdouble-edged sword\u201d for investors. He said:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cOn the one hand, we have confirmation of the tough environment in which companies are operating, but also heightened expectations for looser monetary policy.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h4>Germany \u201cOn Track\u201d for Recession<\/h4>\n<p><strong>James Yardley, senior research analyst at FundCalibre<\/strong>, believes more countries will be affected by economic problems over the coming months.<\/p>\n<p>He told Techopedia:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cGermany is on track for a two-year recession. Europe as a whole very narrowly avoided a recession but is essentially stagnant.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>He also pointed out that China faced problems.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cWhile they are coming out with aggressive growth targets, everyone knows their economy is very weak at the moment,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<h4>Is the US in a Recession?<\/h4>\n<p>Of course, many investors have asked: is the US in a recession \u2013 or is it likely to experience one over the coming months? Not according to <strong>Ben Yearsley, director of Fairview Investing<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cIt feels like the US has entirely avoided the recession predicted by virtually every economist,\u201d he said. \u201cEmployment remains strong and markets are flying, with the only question being, will the Fed keep rates too high for too long?\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Yearsley is relaxed about the global outlook.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cJobless numbers aren\u2019t rising at any great level therefore it\u2019s a question of whether high interest rates are doing any damage \u2013 and they\u2019re not at the moment,\u201d he said. \u201cThe biggest concern on the horizon is huge levels of government spending. Should we have such large deficits in a reasonably robust economy, especially the US?\u201d<\/p>\n<h4>Buoyant Stock Markets<\/h4>\n<p>Stock markets remained buoyant in February, pointed out <strong>Guy Wagner, chief investment officer (CIO) of Banque de Luxembourg Investments<\/strong>, the asset manager.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cContinued robust corporate earnings, the resilience of the US economy allaying residual fears of recession, and the continuing hype surrounding the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/definition\/190\/artificial-intelligence-ai\">artificial intelligence<\/a> theme following <a href=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/nvidia-earnings-analyst-nvda-stock-forecasts\">Nvidia&#8217;s again stunning results<\/a> triggered new record highs for several indices and leading stocks,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n<p>The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/investing\/best-tech-stocks\">best tech stocks<\/a>, including some of the \u2018Magnificent Seven\u2019 companies led by Nvidia, showed a resilient performance in the last 12 months.<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_199079\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-199079\" style=\"width: 1200px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-3-300x149.jpg\" alt=\"Buoyant Stock Markets\" width=\"1200\" height=\"597\" class=\"wp-image-199079\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-3-300x149.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-3-1024x509.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-3-768x382.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-3-83x40.jpg 83w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-3-1536x764.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-3-1200x597.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2024\/03\/4-3.jpg 1600w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-199079\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Tech Stocks 1-Year Performance. Source: TradingView<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p><strong>Ed Monk, associate director at Fidelity International<\/strong>, suggested investors \u201ctune out the noise\u201d as to whether or not we\u2019re in a recession. He said:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cHistory shows short-term economic ups and downs have little to do with performance in the stock market. Markets tend to be forward-looking, and investors will already be seeing past data on recent economic performance.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h4>Make Money in a Recession<\/h4>\n<p>However, the good news is that investors can still make money during a recession, according to <strong>Danni Hewson, head of financial analysis at AJ Bell<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>\u201cInvesting in high-quality companies with strong balance sheets is a good start,\u201d she told Techopedia. \u201cThose businesses will be in prime position to take advantage of weaker competitors during a downturn, either by grabbing market share or through a spot of smart M&amp;A activity.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>The global economic outlook, she pointed out, was \u201cmurky at best\u201d with investors juggling concerns about recessions, potential political shifts, and geopolitical unrest.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cGood companies can start to look cheap, and investors can bag themselves some tasty bargains as long as they think strategically, have a plan and don\u2019t just follow a pack driven by emotions,\u201d she added. \u201cRemember, a lot of bad news has already been priced in.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h4>Focus on Quality Companies<\/h4>\n<p>According to <strong>Craig Brown, senior multi-asset investment specialist at Rathbones<\/strong>, a focus on quality can help to avoid companies that may come under more strain.<\/p>\n<p>These problems, he told Techopedia, could include higher indebtedness, thin margins with little defensibility, or products that customers find easy to dispense with during tough times.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u201cWe want companies which can grow their market share during a recession as the weaker peers falter,\u201d he said. \u201cThis does not mean high-quality companies won\u2019t see a share price fall during bear markets, but it does provide greater comfort that the business is better positioned to weather an economic storm and come out of the other side in an even stronger position.\u201d<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2><span id=\"the_bottom_line\">The Bottom Line<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>It\u2019s not straightforward to answer the question of whether we are in a recession. There are too many variables at play.<\/p>\n<p>Headlines were screaming: \u2018Recession 2023\u2019 for most of last year, but most of these worst-case scenarios didn\u2019t materialize.<\/p>\n<p>So far, only the UK and Japan and entered a technical recession, meaning they have suffered at least two consecutive quarters of negative growth.<\/p>\n<p>However, many analysts and fund managers are optimistic about prospects and believe that any downturns are likely to be relatively short-lived.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"faqs\">FAQs<\/span><\/h2>\n<div class=\"man_faq_sec\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/FAQPage\"><section class=\"ms_faq ms_card \" ><div itemscope itemprop=\"mainEntity\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Question\"><div class=\"accordionButton\"><h3 itemprop=\"name\">How long do recessions last?<\/h3> <\/div>\n<div class=\"accordionContent\" itemscope itemprop=\"acceptedAnswer\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Answer\" style=\"display:none;\"><p itemprop=\"text\">Historically, they haven\u2019t lasted long. The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalgroup.com\/advisor\/insights\/articles\/guide-to-recessions.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">average has spanned about 10 months<\/a>, according to an analysis of 11 cycles since 1950 by Capital Group.<\/p>\r\n                <\/div><\/div><\/section>\n<section class=\"ms_faq ms_card \" ><div itemscope itemprop=\"mainEntity\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Question\"><div class=\"accordionButton\"><h3 itemprop=\"name\">Are we in a recession right now?<\/h3> <\/div>\n<div class=\"accordionContent\" itemscope itemprop=\"acceptedAnswer\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Answer\" style=\"display:none;\"><p itemprop=\"text\">The UK and Japan are both in a technical recession, meaning they have suffered two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth.<\/p>\r\n                <\/div><\/div><\/section>\n<section class=\"ms_faq ms_card \" ><div itemscope itemprop=\"mainEntity\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Question\"><div class=\"accordionButton\"><h3 itemprop=\"name\">Is the economy going to crash?<\/h3> <\/div>\n<div class=\"accordionContent\" itemscope itemprop=\"acceptedAnswer\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Answer\" style=\"display:none;\"><p itemprop=\"text\">Analysts believe more countries could go into recession this year, particularly Germany, although businesses remain optimistic about the global prospects.<\/p>\r\n                <\/div><\/div><\/section>\n<section class=\"ms_faq ms_card \" ><div itemscope itemprop=\"mainEntity\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Question\"><div class=\"accordionButton\"><h3 itemprop=\"name\">When will the recession end?<\/h3> <\/div>\n<div class=\"accordionContent\" itemscope itemprop=\"acceptedAnswer\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Answer\" style=\"display:none;\"><p itemprop=\"text\">The UK recession is expected to be short-lived. The British Chambers of Commerce expects the <a href=\"https:\/\/www.britishchambers.org.uk\/news\/2024\/02\/bcc-economic-forecast-recession-expected-to-end-but-growth-will-be-weak\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">UK economy to grow every year until the end of 2026<\/a>. Growth for 2024 and 2025 has been revised upwards slightly to 0.5% and 0.7%, respectively, with 2026 set for a 1.0% uplift.<\/p>\r\n                <\/div><\/div><\/section>\n<div class=\"reference-content\">\n<div class=\"reference-heading reference-content-collapsible-heading\">\n<h2><span id=\"references\">References<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"reference-content-body\">\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/agenda\/2024\/01\/economic-outlook-2024-recession-inflation\/#:~:text=The%20global%20economy%20is%20expected,fragmentation%20to%20accelerate%20in%202024.\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">What does 2024 have in store for the economy? Leading chief economists give their views<\/a> (Weforum)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/economy\/grossdomesticproductgdp\/bulletins\/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk\/octobertodecember2023\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">GDP first quarterly estimate, UK: October to December 2023<\/a> (Ons.gov)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.ons.gov.uk\/2022\/11\/11\/uncertainty-and-the-r-word-what-exactly-is-a-recession\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">National Statistical<\/a> (Blog.ons.gov)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/asia\/japans-economy-slips-into-recession-weak-domestic-demand-2024-02-15\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Japan unexpectedly slips into recession, Germany now world&#8217;s third-biggest economy<\/a> (Reuters)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2024\/01\/30\/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">World Economic Outlook Update<\/a> (Imf)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalgroup.com\/advisor\/insights\/articles\/guide-to-recessions.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Capital Ideas\u2122 Investment insights from Capital Group<\/a> (Capitalgroup)<\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.britishchambers.org.uk\/news\/2024\/02\/bcc-economic-forecast-recession-expected-to-end-but-growth-will-be-weak\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">BCC Economic Forecast: Recession Expected To End But Growth Will Be Weak <\/a> (Britishchambers.org)<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As we are living in economically turbulent times, there is one burning question on investors\u2019 minds right now: Are we in a recession? The answer depends on where they live. Some parts of the world slipped into a recession last year, while others are struggling to avoid economic problems. But how do analysts see the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":286864,"featured_media":199123,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","om_disable_all_campaigns":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[2682],"tags":[],"category_partsoff":[],"class_list":["post-199064","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-economics"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.8 (Yoast SEO v23.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Are We in a Recession? 7 Analysts on Economic Crisis 2024<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Are we in a recession? 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