{"id":382542,"date":"2025-02-18T11:34:47","date_gmt":"2025-02-18T11:34:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/?post_type=definition&p=382542"},"modified":"2025-02-18T11:34:47","modified_gmt":"2025-02-18T11:34:47","slug":"ev-betting","status":"publish","type":"definition","link":"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/definition\/ev-betting","title":{"rendered":"Expected Value Betting"},"content":{"rendered":"

Expected Value (EV) is one of the strongest strategies a bettor can apply when it comes to sports betting. It allows them to measure the probability difference between how they think a game or race will develop and how a sportsbook will.<\/p>\n

In this article, we’re going to look at how EV betting works, what does EV mean in betting, how to find EV, and then how to apply it to all your bets. We’ve also included real-world examples using betting markets to show how vigorish plays a key role in spotting EV.<\/p>\n

What is Expected Value (EV) in Sports Betting?<\/span><\/h2>\n

When we talk about EV, we’re essentially trying to find value in betting odds<\/a> originally set out by online sportsbook traders. We want to find odds that seem inflated based on the probability of that result coming in.<\/p>\n

\"What<\/p>\n

Betting odds are all probabilities of that result happening. If a bookmaker were to set the true odds of a coin flip, then this would be a simple case of 50\/50 for heads or tails. The odds would be +100 for both results and given that we know that the chances of landing on heads or tails are 50\/50, this would give a neutral EV as the odds are correct.<\/p>\n

However, if the bookmaker moved the odds to +120 this changes the implied probability to 45.5%. Given that we know for sure that this is a lower probability than the true value of a coin toss, this bet would then be +EV as we’re getting better odds than it should be.<\/p>\n

The flip side is that, if the bookmaker were to offer odds of -120 on the coin flip, it would create a probability of 54.5%, higher than the 50% chance of heads or tails. As this isn’t the true probability of a coin toss, it would create a negative Expected Value (-EV) and in turn, not be a good price to take. When this happens, it is known as a probability gap.<\/p>\n

How does EV Work in Sports Betting?<\/span><\/h2>\n

The process works perfectly with sports betting as it allows us to find value from markets throughout a betting site. Unlike the coin flip, sports betting probability is subjective. Sure, it’s possible to apply a huge amount of data to create a book, but even then, there are no guarantees that the odds on offer reflect true probability.<\/p>\n

However, just a like a coin flip, each market comes with implied probabilities as the result. Typical bookmakers create initial betting lines based on data and then adjusts based on the volume of bets placed, amongst other things.<\/p>\n

Professional sports bettors all look for +EV bets on early betting lines. They aren’t looking at bets for games that day, but instead when the market is cold and betting lines have just been released. This is the best time to find value betting<\/a> is days, sometimes weeks, before casual bettors can place their bets and distort the lines away from the correct price.<\/p>\n

There are several key areas that need to be considered to calculate EV in sports betting.<\/p>\n

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  1. Probability of Winning \u2013 <\/strong>You need to evaluate how like a result is to win. This includes extensive research such as team performances, player statistics, historical data, and other relevant information.<\/li>\n
  2. Potential Payout \u2013<\/strong> The payout is determined by the odds set by the bookmaker and the amount the bettor wants to wager. Odds essentially highlight the implied probability of the result, based on the bookmaker\u2019s data.<\/li>\n
  3. Probability of Losing \u2013<\/strong> As well as winning, it\u2019s important to work out how likely the bet is going to lose. In a two-team bet, this would simply be the opposing probability to the bet winning, but for three or more potential outcomes, each needs to be considered.<\/li>\n
  4. Amount Wagered \u2013<\/strong> The amount wagered is needed to determine the overall profit of the bet. This can change based on how +EV the bet is but needs to be added to the formula to correctly determine if the bet offers value or not.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Complete Formula for Expected Value<\/h3>\n

    All this information can be applied to the following simple formula which determines if your wager is plus or minus EV betting and thus value or not.<\/p>\n