{"id":4895,"date":"2024-03-20T10:40:39","date_gmt":"2024-03-20T10:40:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/?p=4895"},"modified":"2024-03-20T10:40:39","modified_gmt":"2024-03-20T10:40:39","slug":"analytiker-diskuterar-den-ekonomiska-krisen","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/analytiker-diskuterar-den-ekonomiska-krisen","title":{"rendered":"\u00c4r vi i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur? 7 analytiker diskuterar krisen 2024"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Eftersom vi lever i ekonomiskt turbulenta tider finns det en br\u00e4nnande fr\u00e5ga som investerarna st\u00e4ller sig just nu: \u00c4r vi inne i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur?<\/p>\n<p>Svaret beror p\u00e5 var de bor. Vissa delar av v\u00e4rlden gick in i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur (\u00e4ven kallad recession) f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret, medan andra k\u00e4mpar f\u00f6r att undvika ekonomiska problem.<\/p>\n<p>Men hur ser analytikerna p\u00e5 de kommande m\u00e5naderna, och n\u00e4r kommer ekonomin att \u00e5terh\u00e4mta sig i de regioner som redan har p\u00e5verkats negativt?<\/p>\n<p>H\u00e4r tittar vi p\u00e5 vilka l\u00e4nder som kan f\u00e5 se sin ekonomi krascha och om det kommer att bli en amerikansk l\u00e5gkonjunktur under de kommande m\u00e5naderna.<\/p>\n<div class=\"su-note\"  style=\"border-color:#e5e54c;border-radius:\u201c3\u201dpx;-moz-border-radius:\u201c3\u201dpx;-webkit-border-radius:\u201c3\u201dpx;\"><div class=\"su-note-inner su-u-clearfix su-u-trim\" style=\"background-color:#FFFF66;border-color:#ffffff;color:#333333;border-radius:\u201c3\u201dpx;-moz-border-radius:\u201c3\u201dpx;-webkit-border-radius:\u201c3\u201dpx;\">\n<h2><span id=\"viktiga_slutsatser_om_en_lagkonjunktur_2024\">Viktiga slutsatser om en l\u00e5gkonjunktur 2024<\/span><\/h2>\n<ul>\n<li>Storbritannien och Japan befinner sig b\u00e5da tekniskt sett i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur efter att ha haft tv\u00e5 kvartal i rad med negativ tillv\u00e4xt.<\/li>\n<li>Mer \u00e4n h\u00e4lften av chefsekonomerna f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar sig att den globala ekonomin kommer att f\u00f6rsvagas under 2024, enligt World Economic Forum.<\/li>\n<li>Enligt en rapport fr\u00e5n Oxford Economics som Techopedia tagit del av \u00e4r f\u00f6retagen alltmer \u00f6vertygade om att en mjuklandning \u00e4r att v\u00e4nta f\u00f6r den globala ekonomin.<\/li>\n<li>Vissa analytiker tror att Tyskland kommer att bli n\u00e4sta land att g\u00e5 in i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur.<\/li>\n<li>Analytiker och fondf\u00f6rvaltare insisterar p\u00e5 att det fortfarande \u00e4r m\u00f6jligt att tj\u00e4na pengar under en l\u00e5gkonjunktur.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/div>\n<div>\n    <section class=\"toc-sticky w-100 bg-white \">\n        <div class=\"toc-sticky__container container\">\n            <div class=\"toc-sticky__open d-flex align-items-end\" data-bs-toggle=\"collapse\"\n                 aria-controls=\"multiCollapse1\"\n                 data-bs-target=\"#multiCollapse1\">\n                <button\n                        class=\"btn btn-primary collapse-action-btn p-1 rounded-circle\"\n                        type=\"button\"\n                >\n                    <i class=\"icon-chevron-up\"><\/i>\n                <\/button>\n                <span id=\"toc-current-title\" class=\"d-flex align-items-center\">\n                    Inneh\u00e5llsf\u00f6rteckning\n                <\/span>\n                <span class=\"toc-main-title-permanent\">Inneh\u00e5llsf\u00f6rteckning<\/span>\n            <\/div>\n            <div\n                    class=\"collapse my-3\"\n                    id=\"multiCollapse1\"\n            >\n                <ol class=\"StepProgress\">\n                                                                        <li class=\"StepProgress-item current\">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"viktiga_slutsatser_om_en_lagkonjunktur_2024\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"viktiga_slutsatser_om_en_lagkonjunktur_2024\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">Viktiga slutsatser om en l\u00e5gkonjunktur 2024<\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                                                        <li class=\"StepProgress-item\">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"nyheter_om_lagkonjunkturen_hur_ser_laget_ut\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"nyheter_om_lagkonjunkturen_hur_ser_laget_ut\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">Nyheter om l\u00e5gkonjunkturen: Hur ser l\u00e4get ut?<\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                                                    <li class=\"StepProgress-item subList-in-progress \">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"ar_vi_inne_i_en_lagkonjunktur\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"ar_vi_inne_i_en_lagkonjunktur\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">\u00c4r vi inne i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur?<\/a>\n                                                            <button class=\"StepProgress-item__arrow collapse-action-btn\" type=\"button\"\n                                        data-bs-toggle=\"collapse\"\n                                        data-bs-target=\"#TOC1sublist-ar_vi_inne_i_en_lagkonjunktur\"\n                                        aria-controls=\"sublist-ar_vi_inne_i_en_lagkonjunktur\">\n                                    <i class=\"icon-chevron-down\"><\/i>\n                                <\/button>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <ol class=\"StepProgress-sub-list collapse\" id=\"TOC1sublist-ar_vi_inne_i_en_lagkonjunktur\">\n                                                                    <li class=\"StepProgress-sub-item\">\n                    <span>\n                      <a data-id=\"vissa_lander_har_redan_drabbats_av_problem\"\n                         onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"vissa_lander_har_redan_drabbats_av_problem\")\n                         class=\"StepProgress-item__link\"\n                         data-level=\"3\">Vissa l\u00e4nder har redan drabbats av problem<\/a>\n                    <\/span>\n                                    <\/li>\n                                                            <\/ol>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                                                    <li class=\"StepProgress-item subList-in-progress \">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"ar_en_lagkonjunktur_pa_vag\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"ar_en_lagkonjunktur_pa_vag\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">\u00c4r en l\u00e5gkonjunktur p\u00e5 v\u00e4g?<\/a>\n                                                            <button class=\"StepProgress-item__arrow collapse-action-btn\" type=\"button\"\n                                        data-bs-toggle=\"collapse\"\n                                        data-bs-target=\"#TOC1sublist-ar_en_lagkonjunktur_pa_vag\"\n                                        aria-controls=\"sublist-ar_en_lagkonjunktur_pa_vag\">\n                                    <i class=\"icon-chevron-down\"><\/i>\n                                <\/button>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                    <ol class=\"StepProgress-sub-list collapse\" id=\"TOC1sublist-ar_en_lagkonjunktur_pa_vag\">\n                                                                    <li class=\"StepProgress-sub-item\">\n                    <span>\n                      <a data-id=\"vad_anser_foretagen\"\n                         onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"vad_anser_foretagen\")\n                         class=\"StepProgress-item__link\"\n                         data-level=\"3\">Vad anser f\u00f6retagen?<\/a>\n                    <\/span>\n                                    <\/li>\n                                                                    <li class=\"StepProgress-sub-item\">\n                    <span>\n                      <a data-id=\"vad_tycker_analytikerna\"\n                         onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"vad_tycker_analytikerna\")\n                         class=\"StepProgress-item__link\"\n                         data-level=\"3\">Vad tycker analytikerna?<\/a>\n                    <\/span>\n                                    <\/li>\n                                                            <\/ol>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                                                        <li class=\"StepProgress-item\">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"slutsatsen_den_ekonomiska_krisen_2024\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"slutsatsen_den_ekonomiska_krisen_2024\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">Slutsatsen den ekonomiska krisen 2024<\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                                                        <li class=\"StepProgress-item\">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"vanliga_fragor_om_en_lagkonjuktur_2024\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"vanliga_fragor_om_en_lagkonjuktur_2024\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">Vanliga fr\u00e5gor om en l\u00e5gkonjuktur 2024<\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                                                        <li class=\"StepProgress-item\">\n                                                <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                            <a data-id=\"referenser\"\n                               onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"referenser\")\n                               class=\"StepProgress-item__link\" data-level=\"2\">Referenser<\/a>\n                                                    <\/div>\n                                                <\/li>\n                                    <\/ol>\n                <div class=\"toc-sticky__container__disperse\"><\/div>\n                <div class=\"toc-sticky__btn-top justify-content-center\">\n                    <button class=\"btn btn-link d-flex align-items-center\" onclick={btnTop()}><p>Visa fullst\u00e4ndig lista<\/p><img decoding=\"async\"\n                                src=\"\/wp-content\/plugins\/table-of-contents\/assets\/images\/arrow-up-circle.svg\"\n                                alt=\"arrow-up-circle\">\n                    <\/button>\n                <\/div>\n            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class=\"StepProgress-item__arrow collapse-action-btn\" type=\"button\"\n                                            data-bs-toggle=\"collapse\"\n                                            data-bs-target=\"#sublist-ar_vi_inne_i_en_lagkonjunktur\"\n                                            aria-controls=\"sublist-ar_vi_inne_i_en_lagkonjunktur\">\n                                        <i class=\"icon-chevron-down\"><\/i>\n                                    <\/button>\n                                                            <\/div>\n                                                            <ol class=\"StepProgress-sub-list collapse\" id=\"sublist-ar_vi_inne_i_en_lagkonjunktur\">\n                                                                            <li class=\"StepProgress-sub-item\">\n                    <span>\n                      <a data-id=\"vissa_lander_har_redan_drabbats_av_problem\"\n                         onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"vissa_lander_har_redan_drabbats_av_problem\")\n                         class=\"StepProgress-item__link\"\n                         data-level=\"3\">Vissa l\u00e4nder har redan drabbats av problem<\/a>\n                    <\/span>\n                                        <\/li>\n                                                                    <\/ol>\n                                                    <\/li>\n                    \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\n\t\t\t\t\t\t <span class=\"show_moretoc\">Visa fullst\u00e4ndig lista<\/span>\n\t\t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t \t\t\t\t\t\t  \t\t\t\t\t                          \t\t\t\t\t\t\n                        <li class=\"StepProgress-item subList-in-progress  ms_hidetoc\">\n                                                    <div class=\"StepProgress-item__group\">\n                                <a data-id=\"ar_en_lagkonjunktur_pa_vag\"\n                                   onclick=handleScrollToTitle(\"ar_en_lagkonjunktur_pa_vag\")\n                                   class=\"StepProgress-item__link\"\n                                   data-level=\"2\">\u00c4r en l\u00e5gkonjunktur p\u00e5 v\u00e4g?<\/a>\n                                                                    <button class=\"StepProgress-item__arrow collapse-action-btn\" type=\"button\"\n                                            data-bs-toggle=\"collapse\"\n                                            data-bs-target=\"#sublist-ar_en_lagkonjunktur_pa_vag\"\n                                            aria-controls=\"sublist-ar_en_lagkonjunktur_pa_vag\">\n                                        <i class=\"icon-chevron-down\"><\/i>\n                                    <\/button>\n                                                            <\/div>\n                                                            <ol class=\"StepProgress-sub-list collapse\" 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       const targetHeight = targetListStatic.getBoundingClientRect().height;\n\n            \/\/ -headerHeight so it won't be jumpy\n            const stop = targetListStatic.offsetTop + headerHeight + targetHeight;\n            const docBody =\n                document.documentElement || document.body.parentNode || document.body;\n            const hasOffset = window.pageYOffset !== undefined;\n\n            const applySticky = function () {\n                \/\/ cross-browser compatible scrollTop.\n                const scrollTop = hasOffset ? window.pageYOffset : docBody.scrollTop;\n\n                \/\/ if user scrolls to headerHeight from the top of the target div\n                if (scrollTop >= stop) {\n                    pageLegendCollapse.hide();\n                    \/\/ stick the div\n                    target.classList.add(\"sticky\");\n                    \/\/target.style.marginTop = `${headerHeight}px`;\n                } else {\n                    pageLegendCollapse.show();\n                    \/\/ release the div\n                    target.classList.remove(\"sticky\");\n                    target.style.marginTop = \"\";\n                }\n            }\n\n            applySticky();\n\n            window.addEventListener('scroll', applySticky);\n        })(header, pageLegendCollapse);\n\tjQuery('span.show_moretoc').click(function(){\n\t\tjQuery('span.show_moretoc').hide();\n\t   jQuery('.ms_hidetoc').show();\n\t});\n    });\n\n    \/\/ When the user clicks on the button, scroll to the top of the document\n    function btnTop() {\n        const pageLegend = document.querySelector('#multiCollapse1');\n        document.querySelector('html').classList.remove('overflow-hidden');\n        pageLegend.classList.remove('overflow-auto');\n        pageLegend.style.height = 'auto';\n        window.scrollTo({\n            top: 0,\n            behavior: 'smooth'\n        });\n    }\n\n    const handleScrollToTitle = (id) => {\n        const el = document.getElementById(id);\n        const headerHeightDifference = window.innerWidth < 992 ? -30 : -15;\n        window.scrollTo({\n            top: el.offsetTop - 60 - headerHeightDifference - 10,\n        });\n    }\n<\/script>\n\n<h2><span id=\"nyheter_om_lagkonjunkturen_hur_ser_laget_ut\">Nyheter om l\u00e5gkonjunkturen: Hur ser l\u00e4get ut?<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Mer \u00e4n h\u00e4lften av chefsekonomerna f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar sig att den globala ekonomin kommer att f\u00f6rsvagas 2024, enligt en rapport fr\u00e5n <a href=\"https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/agenda\/2024\/01\/economic-outlook-2024-recession-inflation\/#:~:text=The%20global%20economy%20is%20expected,fragmentation%20to%20accelerate%20in%202024.\" target=\"_blank\">World Economic Forum<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Os\u00e4kerhet forts\u00e4tter att pr\u00e4gla ekonomin under 2024&#8221;, konstateras i rapporten. &#8220;Vissa ekonomer anser att den globala ekonomin fortfarande ser skakig ut och att den kan f\u00f6rsvagas ytterligare under n\u00e4sta \u00e5r.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Studien p\u00e5pekade att dessa &#8220;moln av os\u00e4kerhet&#8221; \u00f6ver de ekonomiska utsikterna hade varit ett \u00e5terkommande tema under det senaste \u00e5ret. Den tillade:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Den globala ekonomiska aktiviteten \u00e4r fortsatt l\u00e5ngsam, de finansiella f\u00f6rh\u00e5llandena \u00e4r fortsatt strama och de geopolitiska sp\u00e4nningarna \u00f6kar, vilket inneb\u00e4r att mycket av volatiliteten sannolikt kommer att best\u00e5 i \u00e5r.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/global-economic-prospects.jpg\" alt=\"Globala ekonomiska utsikter fr\u00e5n World Economic Forum\" width=\"1200\" height=\"1393\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4897\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/global-economic-prospects.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/global-economic-prospects-258x300.jpg 258w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/global-economic-prospects-882x1024.jpg 882w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/global-economic-prospects-768x892.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"ar_vi_inne_i_en_lagkonjunktur\">\u00c4r vi inne i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur?<\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span id=\"vissa_lander_har_redan_drabbats_av_problem\">Vissa l\u00e4nder har redan drabbats av problem<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Men har den ekonomiska kollaps som f\u00f6rutsp\u00e5ddes redan intr\u00e4ffat p\u00e5 vissa marknader? \u00c4r vi inne i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur just nu?<\/p>\n<p>Svaret \u00e4r ja om du bor i Storbritannien eller Japan, eftersom b\u00e5da l\u00e4nderna har drabbats av en ekonomisk nedg\u00e5ng under de senaste m\u00e5naderna.<\/p>\n<p>Storbritanniens reala bruttonationalprodukt (BNP) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/economy\/grossdomesticproductgdp\/bulletins\/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk\/octobertodecember2023\" target=\"_blank\">sj\u00f6nk med 0,3%<\/a> under det fj\u00e4rde kvartalet (oktober till december) 2023, efter en nedg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 0,1% mellan juli och september, enligt officiella siffror.<\/p>\n<p>\u00c4ven om tv\u00e5 negativa kvartal i rad <a href=\"https:\/\/blog.ons.gov.uk\/2022\/11\/11\/uncertainty-and-the-r-word-what-exactly-is-a-recession\/\" target=\"_blank\">tekniskt sett \u00e4r en l\u00e5gkonjuktur<\/a>, \u00e4r det sv\u00e5rt att ha en rigid, formell definition, enligt <strong>Darren Morgan, chef f\u00f6r produktion och analys av ekonomisk statistik vid Storbritanniens Office for National Statistics<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>Han po\u00e4ngterade:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Om en ekonomi krymper med 0,1% tv\u00e5 kvartal i rad, men v\u00e4xer kraftigt under kvartalen d\u00e4rp\u00e5, \u00e4r detta verkligen en l\u00e5gkonjunktur eller kanske bara en brist p\u00e5 BNP-tillv\u00e4xt av s\u00e4rskilda eng\u00e5ngssk\u00e4l?&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Japan <a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/asia\/japans-economy-slips-into-recession-weak-domestic-demand-2024-02-15\/\" target=\"_blank\">hamnade ov\u00e4ntat i l\u00e5gkonjunktur<\/a> i slutet av 2023 n\u00e4r BNP krympte under tv\u00e5 kvartal i rad. Landet f\u00f6rlorade d\u00e4refter sin position som v\u00e4rldens tredje st\u00f6rsta ekonomi till Tyskland.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/uk-gdp-2023.jpg\" alt=\"BNP-fall i Storbritannien 2023\" width=\"1200\" height=\"933\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4898\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/uk-gdp-2023.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/uk-gdp-2023-300x233.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/uk-gdp-2023-1024x796.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/uk-gdp-2023-768x597.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"ar_en_lagkonjunktur_pa_vag\">\u00c4r en l\u00e5gkonjunktur p\u00e5 v\u00e4g?<\/span><\/h2>\n<h3><span id=\"vad_anser_foretagen\">Vad anser f\u00f6retagen?<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>F\u00f6retagen \u00e4r alltmer \u00f6vertygade om att en mjuklandning \u00e4r att v\u00e4nta, enligt Global Business Sentiment Index fr\u00e5n Oxford Economics.<\/p>\n<p>Studien visade att de f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntade sig att den globala tillv\u00e4xten skulle f\u00f6rbli relativt stabil under det kommande \u00e5ret &#8211; i motsats till hur de k\u00e4nde sig f\u00f6r tre m\u00e5nader sedan i f\u00f6ljd av Hamas-attacken mot Israel.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Jamie Thompson, chef f\u00f6r makroscenarier vid Oxford Economics<\/strong>, sade att f\u00f6retagen hade blivit mindre oroade \u00f6ver ned\u00e5triskerna f\u00f6r den globala ekonomin.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;De tillfr\u00e5gade ser i genomsnitt en sannolikhet p\u00e5 7% f\u00f6r en global l\u00e5gkonjunktur 2024, ned fr\u00e5n 18% i oktober&#8221;, skrev han. &#8220;De ser ocks\u00e5 bara en minimal chans &#8211; mindre \u00e4n 1 p\u00e5 100 &#8211; f\u00f6r en ekonomisk nedg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 den skala som upplevdes 2009 under den globala finanskrisen.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Deras \u00e5sikter verkar backas upp av statistiken, med en global tillv\u00e4xt som <a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2024\/01\/30\/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024\" target=\"_blank\">ber\u00e4knas till 3,1 % 2024 och 3,2 % 2025<\/a>, enligt Internationella valutafonden.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/globala-ekonomin-2023-2025.jpg\" alt=\"\u00d6versikt \u00f6ver den globala ekonomin 2023, 2024 och 2025\" width=\"800\" height=\"1437\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4901\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/globala-ekonomin-2023-2025.jpg 800w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/globala-ekonomin-2023-2025-167x300.jpg 167w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/globala-ekonomin-2023-2025-570x1024.jpg 570w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/globala-ekonomin-2023-2025-768x1380.jpg 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 800px) 100vw, 800px\" \/><\/p>\n<h3><span id=\"vad_tycker_analytikerna\">Vad tycker analytikerna?<\/span><\/h3>\n<p>Men vad anser analytiker, ekonomer och fondf\u00f6rvaltare n\u00e4r de f\u00e5r fr\u00e5gan: kommer det att bli en l\u00e5gkonjunktur i hela v\u00e4rlden?<\/p>\n<p>Fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r ocks\u00e5 om de f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar sig en fullst\u00e4ndig ekonomisk kollaps eller en tyst l\u00e5gkonjunktur, vilket \u00e4r n\u00e4r <a href=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/ordlista\/aktiemarknad\">aktiemarknaden<\/a> \u00e4r stabil, arbetsl\u00f6sheten \u00e4r l\u00e5g, men m\u00e4nniskor fortfarande k\u00e4mpar ekonomiskt.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Adam Vettese, marknadsanalytiker p\u00e5 eToro<\/strong>, anser att Japan och Storbritanniens recession har \u00f6kat oron f\u00f6r den globala tillv\u00e4xten samtidigt som det \u00e4r ett &#8221; dubbelsidigt sv\u00e4rd&#8221; f\u00f6r investerare. Han sade:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;\u00c5 ena sidan f\u00e5r vi bekr\u00e4ftelse p\u00e5 den tuffa milj\u00f6 som f\u00f6retagen verkar i, men ocks\u00e5 \u00f6kade f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntningar p\u00e5 en mjukare penningpolitik.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h4><span id=\"tyskland_pa_ratt_spar_for_lagkonjunktur\">Tyskland &#8220;p\u00e5 r\u00e4tt sp\u00e5r&#8221; f\u00f6r l\u00e5gkonjunktur<\/span><\/h4>\n<p><strong>James Yardley, ledande analytiker p\u00e5 FundCalibre<\/strong>, tror att fler l\u00e4nder kommer att drabbas av ekonomiska problem under de kommande m\u00e5naderna.<\/p>\n<p>Han ber\u00e4ttade f\u00f6r Techopedia:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>Tyskland \u00e4r p\u00e5 v\u00e4g mot en tv\u00e5\u00e5rig l\u00e5gkonjunktur. Europa som helhet undvek mycket sn\u00e4vt en l\u00e5gkonjunktur men \u00e4r i princip stagnerat.<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Han p\u00e5pekade ocks\u00e5 att Kina st\u00e5r inf\u00f6r problem.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;\u00c4ven om de kommer ut med aggressiva tillv\u00e4xtm\u00e5l s\u00e5 vet alla att deras ekonomi \u00e4r mycket svag just nu&#8221;, sade han.<\/p>\n<h4><span id=\"ar_usa_inne_i_en_lagkonjunktur\">\u00c4r USA inne i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur?<\/span><\/h4>\n<p>Naturligtvis har m\u00e5nga investerare fr\u00e5gat sig: befinner sig USA i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur &#8211; eller \u00e4r det troligt att landet kommer att uppleva en s\u00e5dan under de kommande m\u00e5naderna? Inte enligt <strong>Ben Yearsley, chef f\u00f6r Fairview Investing<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Det k\u00e4nns som om USA helt har undvikit den l\u00e5gkonjunktur som f\u00f6rutsp\u00e5ddes av i stort sett alla ekonomer&#8221;, sade han. &#8220;Syssels\u00e4ttningen \u00e4r fortsatt stark och marknaderna flyger, den enda fr\u00e5gan \u00e4r om Fed kommer att h\u00e5lla r\u00e4ntorna f\u00f6r h\u00f6ga f\u00f6r l\u00e4nge?&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<p>Yearsley \u00e4r lugn n\u00e4r det g\u00e4ller de globala utsikterna.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Antalet arbetsl\u00f6sa \u00f6kar inte i n\u00e5gon st\u00f6rre utstr\u00e4ckning, d\u00e4rf\u00f6r \u00e4r det en fr\u00e5ga om huruvida de h\u00f6ga r\u00e4ntorna g\u00f6r n\u00e5gon skada &#8211; och det g\u00f6r de inte f\u00f6r tillf\u00e4llet&#8221;, sade han. &#8220;Det st\u00f6rsta orosmolnet p\u00e5 horisonten \u00e4r de enorma offentliga utgifterna. Ska vi ha s\u00e5 stora underskott i en ganska robust ekonomi, s\u00e4rskilt i USA?&#8221;<\/p>\n<h4><span id=\"livliga_aktiemarknader\">Livliga aktiemarknader<\/span><\/h4>\n<p>Aktiemarknaderna var fortsatt starka i februari, p\u00e5pekade <strong>Guy Wagner, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) p\u00e5 kapitalf\u00f6rvaltaren Banque de Luxembourg Investments<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Fortsatt robusta bolagsvinster, motst\u00e5ndskraften i den amerikanska ekonomin som d\u00e4mpar kvarvarande r\u00e4dsla f\u00f6r en l\u00e5gkonjunktur och den fortsatta hypen kring <a href=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/ordlista\/artificiell-intelligens\">artificiell intelligens<\/a> efter <a href=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/7-analytiker-ger-sina-nvda-aktieprognoser\">Nvidias \u00e5terigen fantastiska resultat<\/a> utl\u00f6ste nya rekordniv\u00e5er f\u00f6r flera index och ledande aktier&#8221;, sade han.<\/p>\n<p>De b\u00e4sta teknikaktierna, inklusive n\u00e5gra av de &#8220;Magnificent Seven&#8221;-f\u00f6retagen som leds av Nvidia, visade en motst\u00e5ndskraftig utveckling under de senaste 12 m\u00e5naderna.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/tekniska-aktier-tradingview.jpg\" alt=\"Utveckling f\u00f6r teknikaktier 2023-2024\" width=\"1200\" height=\"597\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-4902\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/tekniska-aktier-tradingview.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/tekniska-aktier-tradingview-300x149.jpg 300w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/tekniska-aktier-tradingview-1024x509.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/tekniska-aktier-tradingview-768x382.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.techopedia.com\/se\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/6\/2024\/03\/tekniska-aktier-tradingview-83x40.jpg 83w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><\/p>\n<p><strong>Ed Monk, associate director p\u00e5 Fidelity International<\/strong>, f\u00f6reslog att investerare &#8220;st\u00e4nger ute bruset&#8221; om huruvida vi befinner oss i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur eller inte. Han sade:<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Historien visar att kortsiktiga ekonomiska upp- och nedg\u00e5ngar har lite att g\u00f6ra med utvecklingen p\u00e5 aktiemarknaden. Marknaderna tenderar att vara fram\u00e5tblickande och investerarna kommer redan att se tidigare data om den senaste tidens ekonomiska utveckling.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h4><span id=\"tjana_pengar_i_en_lagkonjunktur\">Tj\u00e4na pengar i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur<\/span><\/h4>\n<p>Den goda nyheten \u00e4r dock att investerare fortfarande kan tj\u00e4na pengar under en l\u00e5gkonjunktur, enligt <strong>Danni Hewson, chef f\u00f6r finansiell analys p\u00e5 AJ Bell<\/strong>.<\/p>\n<p>&#8220;Att investera i h\u00f6gkvalitativa f\u00f6retag med starka balansr\u00e4kningar \u00e4r en bra b\u00f6rjan&#8221;, s\u00e4ger hon till Techopedia. &#8220;Dessa f\u00f6retag kommer att vara i ett utm\u00e4rkt l\u00e4ge f\u00f6r att dra nytta av svagare konkurrenter under en nedg\u00e5ng, antingen genom att ta marknadsandelar eller genom en smart M&amp;A-aktivitet.&#8221;<\/p>\n<p>Hon p\u00e5pekade att de globala ekonomiska utsikterna i b\u00e4sta fall var &#8220;grumliga&#8221; med investerare som jonglerade med oro f\u00f6r recessioner, potentiella politiska skiften och geopolitisk oro.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Bra f\u00f6retag kan b\u00f6rja se billiga ut, och investerare kan g\u00f6ra n\u00e5gra riktigt bra fynd s\u00e5 l\u00e4nge de t\u00e4nker strategiskt, har en plan och inte bara f\u00f6ljer ett paket som styrs av k\u00e4nslor&#8221;, tillade hon. &#8220;Kom ih\u00e5g att m\u00e5nga d\u00e5liga nyheter redan har prisats in.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h4><span id=\"fokus_pa_kvalitetsforetag\">Fokus p\u00e5 kvalitetsf\u00f6retag<\/span><\/h4>\n<p>Enligt <strong>Craig Brown, senior multi-asset investment specialist p\u00e5 Rathbone<\/strong>s, kan ett fokus p\u00e5 kvalitet hj\u00e4lpa till att undvika f\u00f6retag som kan komma att uts\u00e4ttas f\u00f6r st\u00f6rre p\u00e5frestningar.<\/p>\n<p>Dessa problem, ber\u00e4ttade han f\u00f6r Techopedia, kan omfatta h\u00f6gre skulds\u00e4ttning, tunna marginaler med liten f\u00f6rsvarbarhet eller produkter som kunderna tycker \u00e4r l\u00e4tta att avst\u00e5 fr\u00e5n under tuffa tider.<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>&#8220;Vi vill ha f\u00f6retag som kan \u00f6ka sin marknadsandel under en l\u00e5gkonjunktur n\u00e4r de svagare konkurrenterna vacklar&#8221;, s\u00e4ger han. &#8220;Det betyder inte att h\u00f6gkvalitativa f\u00f6retag inte kommer att se aktiekursen falla under bj\u00f6rnmarknader, men det ger st\u00f6rre trygghet att verksamheten \u00e4r b\u00e4ttre positionerad f\u00f6r att klara en ekonomisk storm och komma ut p\u00e5 andra sidan i en \u00e4nnu starkare position.&#8221;<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h2><span id=\"slutsatsen_den_ekonomiska_krisen_2024\">Slutsatsen den ekonomiska krisen 2024<\/span><\/h2>\n<p>Det \u00e4r inte helt enkelt att svara p\u00e5 fr\u00e5gan om vi befinner oss i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur. Det \u00e4r f\u00f6r m\u00e5nga variabler som spelar in.<\/p>\n<p>Rubrikerna skrek: &#8221; L\u00e5gkonjunktur 2023&#8243; under st\u00f6rre delen av f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret, men de flesta av dessa v\u00e4rsta scenarier blev inte verklighet.<\/p>\n<p>Hittills \u00e4r det bara Storbritannien och Japan som har g\u00e5tt in i en teknisk l\u00e5gkonjunktur, vilket inneb\u00e4r att de har haft minst tv\u00e5 kvartal i rad med negativ tillv\u00e4xt.<\/p>\n<p>M\u00e5nga analytiker och fondf\u00f6rvaltare \u00e4r dock optimistiska och tror att eventuella nedg\u00e5ngar kommer att bli relativt kortvariga.<\/p>\n<h2><span id=\"vanliga_fragor_om_en_lagkonjuktur_2024\">Vanliga fr\u00e5gor om en l\u00e5gkonjuktur 2024<\/span><\/h2>\n<div class=\"man_faq_sec\" itemscope itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/FAQPage\"><section class=\"ms_faq ms_card \" ><div itemscope itemprop=\"mainEntity\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Question\"><div class=\"accordionButton\"><h3 itemprop=\"name\">Hur l\u00e4nge varar l\u00e5gkonjunkturer?<\/h3> <\/div>\n<div class=\"accordionContent\" itemscope itemprop=\"acceptedAnswer\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Answer\" style=\"display:none;\"><p itemprop=\"text\">Historiskt sett har de inte varat l\u00e4nge. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalgroup.com\/advisor\/insights\/articles\/guide-to-recessions.html\" target=\"_blank\">Genomsnittet har varit cirka 10 m\u00e5nader<\/a>, enligt en analys av Capital Group av 11 cykler sedan 1950.<\/p>\r\n                <\/div><\/div><\/section>\n<section class=\"ms_faq ms_card \" ><div itemscope itemprop=\"mainEntity\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Question\"><div class=\"accordionButton\"><h3 itemprop=\"name\">\u00c4r vi inne i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur just nu?<\/h3> <\/div>\n<div class=\"accordionContent\" itemscope itemprop=\"acceptedAnswer\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Answer\" style=\"display:none;\"><p itemprop=\"text\">B\u00e5de Storbritannien och Japan befinner sig i en teknisk l\u00e5gkonjunktur, vilket inneb\u00e4r att de har haft tv\u00e5 p\u00e5 varandra f\u00f6ljande kvartal med negativ ekonomisk tillv\u00e4xt.<\/p>\r\n                <\/div><\/div><\/section>\n<section class=\"ms_faq ms_card \" ><div itemscope itemprop=\"mainEntity\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Question\"><div class=\"accordionButton\"><h3 itemprop=\"name\">Kommer ekonomin att krascha?<\/h3> <\/div>\n<div class=\"accordionContent\" itemscope itemprop=\"acceptedAnswer\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Answer\" style=\"display:none;\"><p itemprop=\"text\">Analytiker tror att fler l\u00e4nder kan hamna i recession i \u00e5r, s\u00e4rskilt Tyskland, \u00e4ven om f\u00f6retagen \u00e4r fortsatt optimistiska om de globala utsikterna.<\/p>\r\n                <\/div><\/div><\/section>\n<section class=\"ms_faq ms_card \" ><div itemscope itemprop=\"mainEntity\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Question\"><div class=\"accordionButton\"><h3 itemprop=\"name\">N\u00e4r kommer l\u00e5gkonjunkturen att ta slut?<\/h3> <\/div>\n<div class=\"accordionContent\" itemscope itemprop=\"acceptedAnswer\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/Answer\" style=\"display:none;\"><p itemprop=\"text\">Den brittiska l\u00e5gkonjunkturen v\u00e4ntas bli kortvarig. De brittiska handelskamrarna f\u00f6rv\u00e4ntar sig att den brittiska ekonomin kommer att v\u00e4xa varje \u00e5r fram till slutet av 2026. Tillv\u00e4xten f\u00f6r 2024 och 2025 har reviderats upp n\u00e5got till 0,5 % respektive 0,7 %, och f\u00f6r 2026 v\u00e4ntas en uppg\u00e5ng p\u00e5 1,0 %.<\/p>\r\n                <\/div><\/div><\/section>\n<div class=\"reference-content\">\n<div class=\"reference-heading reference-content-collapsible-heading\">\n<h2><span id=\"referenser\">Referenser<\/span><\/h2>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"reference-content-body\">\n<ol>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/agenda\/2024\/01\/economic-outlook-2024-recession-inflation\/#:~:text=The%20global%20economy%20is%20expected,fragmentation%20to%20accelerate%20in%202024.\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.weforum.org\/agenda\/2024\/01\/economic-outlook-2024-recession-inflation\/#:~:text=The%20global%20economy%20is%20expected,fragmentation%20to%20accelerate%20in%202024.<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/economy\/grossdomesticproductgdp\/bulletins\/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk\/octobertodecember2023\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.ons.gov.uk\/economy\/grossdomesticproductgdp\/bulletins\/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk\/octobertodecember2023<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/blog.ons.gov.uk\/2022\/11\/11\/uncertainty-and-the-r-word-what-exactly-is-a-recession\/\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/blog.ons.gov.uk\/2022\/11\/11\/uncertainty-and-the-r-word-what-exactly-is-a-recession\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/asia\/japans-economy-slips-into-recession-weak-domestic-demand-2024-02-15\/\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.reuters.com\/markets\/asia\/japans-economy-slips-into-recession-weak-domestic-demand-2024-02-15\/<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2024\/01\/30\/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.imf.org\/en\/Publications\/WEO\/Issues\/2024\/01\/30\/world-economic-outlook-update-january-2024<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.capitalgroup.com\/advisor\/insights\/articles\/guide-to-recessions.html\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.capitalgroup.com\/advisor\/insights\/articles\/guide-to-recessions.html<\/a><\/li>\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.britishchambers.org.uk\/news\/2024\/02\/bcc-economic-forecast-recession-expected-to-end-but-growth-will-be-weak\/\" target=\"_blank\">https:\/\/www.britishchambers.org.uk\/news\/2024\/02\/bcc-economic-forecast-recession-expected-to-end-but-growth-will-be-weak\/<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Eftersom vi lever i ekonomiskt turbulenta tider finns det en br\u00e4nnande fr\u00e5ga som investerarna st\u00e4ller sig just nu: \u00c4r vi inne i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur? Svaret beror p\u00e5 var de bor. Vissa delar av v\u00e4rlden gick in i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur (\u00e4ven kallad recession) f\u00f6rra \u00e5ret, medan andra k\u00e4mpar f\u00f6r att undvika ekonomiska problem. Men hur ser [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":286864,"featured_media":4896,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_lmt_disableupdate":"","_lmt_disable":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[38],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4895","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-investering"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v23.8 (Yoast SEO v23.8) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>L\u00e5gkonjunktur? 7 analytiker om den ekonomiska krisen i 2024<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u00c4r vi inne i en l\u00e5gkonjunktur? Vilka l\u00e4nder har problem? 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