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As the 2024 U.S. Presidential election finishes playing out, we hold an early post-mortem analysis of foreign election interference during the run-up. Did foreign disinformation operations have any impact on the voting process?
One day before the election, the FBI and CISA warned together that foreign threat actors, including Russia and Iran, were attempting to undermine the legitimacy of the U.S. election and were running digital misinformation campaigns.
Were foreign digital attempts to interfere in the 2024 election more successful than in 2020 or 2016? Have the techniques and tools used in election interference operations changed — and are they better?
Was public awareness of misinformation and fake news a contributing factor?
As the dust begins to settle from the election, Techopedia talks to experts to answer these and other questions.
The Day After: CISA Says Elections Safer Than Ever
On November 6, 2024, the world woke up to a new U.S. president: Donald Trump. With a comfortable sweep majority, President Trump took back the high seat.
The Director of the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA), Jen Easterly, said that the American election infrastructure has never been more secure.
“As we have said repeatedly, our election infrastructure has never been more secure, and the election community never better prepared to deliver safe, secure, free, and fair elections for the American people. This is what we saw yesterday in the peaceful and secure exercise of democracy.
“Importantly, we have no evidence of any malicious activity that had a material impact on the security or integrity of our election infrastructure.”
Easterly′s statements are correct. While this year the U.S. did see several small misinformation campaigns, some linked to Russia, others to Iran, and some to China, these incidents had little repercussion in the grand scheme of things.
No disinformation campaign in the run-up to the presidential election in the U.S. triggered protests, street riots, or ended up taking over the news cycle for weeks. Contributing to the success were the FBI and CISA, which both detected attacks early, communicated them to the public, and defused them.
How Effective Was Disinformation in the 2024 Presidential Elections?
On November 4, the FBI and CISA warned once again that they were observing foreign adversaries, particularly Russia, conducting additional influence operations intended to “undermine public confidence in the integrity of U.S. elections and stoke divisions among Americans”.
Were foreign actor disinformation campaigns less widespread and effective in 2024 than they were in other years? We asked Erich Kron, Security Awareness Advocate at KnowBe4, for his thoughts on this one.
“The volume of misinformation and disinformation on social media has definitely increased since the previous election cycle.
“However, at this time, it’s very difficult to see if this actually made more of an impact or was simply noise.”
Kron explained that people are becoming more aware of the disinformation and misinformation campaigns. However, threat actors’ tools have evolved, making misinformation harder to detect and easier to launch at large scale.
Speaking to Techopedia, Chris Hauk, Consumer Privacy Champion at Pixel Privacy, agreed that cybersecurity awareness efforts are paying out.
“While deepfake photos, videos, and audios are becoming harder to detect, I also believe that voters are more aware of deepfake and misinformation videos, investigating claims made in such fakes rather than simply believing them outright.”
How Cybersecurity Officials Leveled Up Their Game
Malachi Walker, Security Advisor at DomainTools, spoke to Techopedia about why disinformation did not have the expected outcome.
“Foreign actors were most influential and effective in reaching their goals regarding their interference with the 2016 election,” Walked said.
“Since then, CISA has taken a proactive approach since emerging out of the National Protection and Programs Directorate (NPPD) in 2018 to raise awareness of misinformation, protect the nation from foreign interference, and manage all operational and cybersecurity risks related to the U.S. election system.”
While most cybersecurity experts agree that disinformation campaigns had little impact on the results of the election, others warn that their impact could be in other social areas, such as erosion of trust and division.
David Brumley, the CEO of Mayhem Security, spoke to Techopedia about what he believes is the real tactic of disinformation operations run by foreign threat actors.
“Foreign actors seek, above all, to sow fear and doubt, using elections as prime opportunities.”
“This year, the cumulative effect is clear: with extended lead-up times and some political figures amplifying fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD), these tactics are more effective at reaching and influencing the average voter than in previous cycles,” Brumley said.
Brunley added the effect of these campaigns is cumulative on societies. “The longer they operate in this environment, the deeper their impact on public perception,” Brunley said.
“We know Iran is targeting the Trump campaign, and Russia seems to be anti-Kamala, and China worries about both equally.
“I think there will really be a wash as far as influencing particular candidates, again with the long-term damage in removing our faith in our free and fair election process.”
If Disinformation is No Longer an Effective Criminal Tech, What Is?
Are other tactics more effective than disinformation during elections? History tells us that, in fact, there have been more effective tactics to sway voters in the past — for example, the Cambridge Analytica scandal.
Cambridge Analytica, a political consulting firm, obtained personal data from millions of Facebook users without their consent. This data was used to create detailed psychological profiles of individuals, which were then used to target them with political advertisements. The advertisements were designed to be emotionally manipulative and to exploit the individual’s psychological vulnerabilities.
Disinformation techniques are straight out of the Cambridge Analytica playbook, leveraging social media, but its content and targets vary.
We asked Brumley from Mayhem Security for his thoughts.
“The Cambridge Analytica scandal and the Clinton Wikileaks episode were indeed potent in their reach and influence on voter sentiment and engagement directly.”
However, Brumley believes it’s a huge mistake to say these specific events are more impactful than the persistent disinformation campaigns.
“Why? Above all, foreign influence isn’t about backing a particular candidate — it’s about fracturing our social fabric, sowing division, and causing internal turmoil that weakens our democratic resilience.”
The Bottom Line
The decentralized nature of the U.S. presidential election, combined with the increased efficiency of CISA, Homeland Security, and the FBI to counter disinformation and a higher level of social cybersecurity awareness, made the 2024 election more secure than ever.
However, some experts say that foreign actors’ disinformation campaigns are not actually targeting voters to sway them to vote one way or the other — but rather abusing the critical democratic process as an opportunity to erode trust and create chaos and confusion.
Additionally, the role that social media — organically or artificially — has on society today cannot be denied.
While this report does not go into that realm, experts warn that malicious use of personal data for psyops can be more effective than the current tactics foreign actors are using.
Only time will tell if threat actors will pivot and turn to new or old technologies to influence voters. As of today, the U.S. election system looks to be safer than ever.
