Netflix Stock Forecast 2024, 2025 & Beyond: Back to All-Time Highs?

Streaming giant Netflix (NFLX) has been handsomely rewarded for having transformed its fortunes over the past couple of years.

The NFLX stock price collapsed in 2022 due to fierce competition, low subscriber growth, and macroeconomic factors following COVID-19.

However, improving the quality of its product, cracking down on password sharing, and increasing revenue have put a smile back on investors’ faces.

The Netflix stock price stood at $685.67 as the stock market closed on June 18, 2024. This is an incredible 291% higher than its $175.51 level two years ago.

However, the question is: What comes next? Ahead of next month’s second-quarter results, our Netflix stock forecast 2024, 2025, and beyond looks at what could be in store.

Table of Contents Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Summary of the Latest Netflix Stock Predictions
3. Netflix Stock Analysis
4. The Latest Netflix News & Key Drivers to Consider
5. Netflix Stock Forecast: Analyst Views
6. Netflix Stock Predictions: What Will Happen to the NFLX Stock Price Next?
7. The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in Netflix?
8. FAQs
9. References

Show Full Guide

Table of Contents

1. Key Takeaways
2. Summary of the Latest Netflix Stock Predictions
3. Netflix Stock Analysis
Show Full Guide
4. The Latest Netflix News & Key Drivers to Consider
5. Netflix Stock Forecast: Analyst Views
6. Netflix Stock Predictions: What Will Happen to the NFLX Stock Price Next?
7. The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in Netflix?
8. FAQs
9. References

Summary of the Latest Netflix Stock Predictions

Netflix Stock Analysis

It has been a tremendous 12 months for investors in the US entertainment giant.

The Netflix stock price has risen 58% over the past year from $434.70 to $685.67 as the stock market closed on June 18, 2024.

The price is also up 46% year-to-date and fast approaching the all-time high Netflix closing price of $691.69, which was hit on November 17, 2021, according to MacroTrends.

It has achieved trailing returns of 58.73% for the year to June 18, 2024, according to Morningstar. This compares to 25.37% for the index and the entertainment industry’s 13.39%.”

The Latest Netflix News & Key Drivers to Consider

A key part of any Netflix stock forecast is looking at the latest Netflix news and any influential performance drivers.

Launch of Netflix House

In mid-June 2024, the company announced the opening of its Netflix House immersive experiences in two US shopping centers.

The company has vowed to “bring some of our most beloved titles to life” when they open next year at King of Prussia in Pennsylvania and Galleria Dallas.

Marian Lee, Netflix’s Chief Marketing Officer, said: “We’ve launched more than 50 experiences in 25 cities, and Netflix House represents the next generation of our distinctive offerings. The venues will bring our beloved stories to life in new, ever-changing, and unexpected ways.”

First Move Into American Football

Netflix announced in early June 2024 that it would be screening live NFL (National Football League) games over Christmas this year.

The Christmas Day matches will be the Super Bowl LVII-winning Chiefs vs Steelers and the Ravens vs. Texans.

In a statement, Bela Bajaria, Chief Content Officer at Netflix, said the company had “decided to take a big bet” on live content.

“There are no live annual events, sports or otherwise, that compare with the audiences NFL football attracts,” she wrote. “We’re so excited that the NFL’s Christmas Day games will be only on Netflix.”

Separately, an article in AdWeek claimed the company would be charging more than $5 million for sponsorship packages.

Good Start to 2024

The company’s first-quarter results, published in mid-April 2024, revealed a 15% year-on-year increase in revenue to almost $9.4 billion.

Operating income rose 54% to $2.6 billion, while there was a 79% increase in net income to $2.3 billion, up from $1.3 billion in the first quarter of 2023.

Global streaming paid memberships, meanwhile, were almost 270 million. This meant that nine million people became subscribers in the first quarter of this year. In a statement, the company declared:

“We have built a hard to replicate combination of a strong slate, superior recommendations, board reach and intense fandom, which drives healthy engagement on Netflix.”

Netflix Stock Forecast: Analyst Views

What are the Netflix stock predictions of industry observers? Do they believe it’s worth considering and what do they have as their Netflix price target?

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, has been impressed by how management has transformed its fortunes.

He told Techopedia:

“Netflix has done a tremendous job of bouncing back from the woes of 2022, when competition, password sharing and a post-pandemic lull in subscriber growth hammered the share price, which fell by more than two-thirds from peak to trough.”

Mould believes the company’s “back catalog of content,” as well as its foreign language and global series/films, is helping it through the after-effects of the script writers’ and actors’ strikes.

He also believes they are enjoying more success than their rivals in monetizing customer bases, including the clampdown on password sharing.

“Netflix also has a healthier balance sheet than many of its major media rivals, where consolidation now seems to be the name of the game,” he said. “As such, the company seems well placed, although the share price is already telling you that.”

The challenge for anyone interested in buying the stock, he believes, is addressing the stock’s valuation.

“Investors must assess whether it offers an appropriate balance between upside potential and downside risk, should anything unexpected go wrong,” Mould said. “That swan dive of 2022 will still be fresh in the minds of many.”

Mould also pointed out that the NFLX stock now trades on more than 30 times forward earnings, seven times forward sales and offers a free cash flow yield of barely 3%.

“In its favor are its powerful competitive position and the profit and free cash flow margins that this position generates, while analysts still think there is a lot of rapid earnings growth to come,” he added.

“Momentum and growth seekers may still therefore be interested, but yield or value hunters may find it harder to warm to Netflix at current levels.”

Matthew Dolgin, senior equity analyst at Morningstar, has a $440 fair value estimate for the NFLX stock and isn’t expecting significant subscriber benefits from these games.

In his Netflix stock forecast, he acknowledged that the NFL’s decision to partner with Netflix illustrated the platform’s global reach but insisted it wasn’t enough to change his valuation.

“Unlike limited sports rights on other streaming platforms, such as Amazon Prime with a weekly Thursday NFL game, Netflix will have rights for only one day per year under this deal,” he wrote.

While Netflix may see an “uptick in subscriber additions” in advance of each year’s NFL games, Dolgin doesn’t believe they will be unfamiliar with what the platform offers. He added:

“Netflix will undoubtedly see an influx of advertising revenue on game days, but we suspect benefits from the modest bump in revenue will be offset by the cost of these rights.”

Netflix Stock Predictions: What Will Happen to the NFLX Stock Price Next?

So, is Netflix a buy, hold, or sell? The stock is rated as a ‘moderate buy,’ according to the views of 35 Wall Street analysts compiled by MarketBeat as of June 19, 2024.

Twenty two have it down as a ‘buy,’ and 12 see it as a ‘hold,’ while one analyst has a ‘sell’ recommendation in place.

The consensus view is that the stock could tumble 7.60% to $633.53 over the coming year, although opinions are very divided.

While the most optimistic analysts believe the NFLX stock price could hit $800, others have penciled in a substantial fall to $370.

The following table shows the latest analysts’ Netflix stock predictions.

Netflix stock is also rated as a ‘moderate buy’ by TipRanks, based on the views of 36 stock market analysts.

Their consensus Netflix stock forecast 2025 ?is that the stock could fall 3.8% to $659.60 over the coming year, although NFLX predictions ranged from $450 to $800.

Meanwhile, Netflix has been branded a “bad long-term (one year) investment” by the algorithmic forecasts of Wallet Investor.

It believes the stock could slip to $671.20 over the next 12 months. This would represent a 2% decline on its closing price of $685.67 on June 18, 2024.

WallerInvestor’s longer-term 5-year Netflix stock forecast estimates the NFLX price to be around the same level of $676.61 in June 2029.

However, this is a fast-moving sector, which makes a Netflix stock forecast 2030 virtually impossible to make with any degree of certainty.

It’s worth noting that analysts’ and algorithm-based projections might prove to be wrong.

The Bottom Line: Should I Invest in Netflix?

There is no doubt that investors have fallen back in love with Netflix. Subscriber growth has been strong, and the ever-improving content has gone down well with viewers.

The enthusiasm has been reflected in the Netflix share price forecast which has recovered from the trouncing that it received during 2022.

However, as our Netflix stock forecast illustrates, analysts appear hesitant. While the consensus view is that it’s a ‘moderate buy,’ the fear is that its price could slip over the coming year.

A lot will depend on the company’s second-quarter results, which are due to be published on July 18, and whether they continue the company’s recent positive momentum.

FAQs