Copper Price Forecast 2024, 2025, 2030: Will the Red Metal’s Bull Run Continue?

After slumping over the past two years due to China’s weakening economy due to the strict COVID-19 restrictions, the copper price has rebounded and even rallied to break its record high. On May 20, 2024, the red metal reached a fresh all-time high of around $10,900 per ton, breaking its previous record of $10,845 per ton in March 2022.

However, the price of the red metal – used in home appliances, electronic products, transportation equipment, and building construction – soon retraced to below $10,000. It rebounded briefly to $10,000 in late September following the announcement of new economic measures by China, the world’s largest copper consumer.

Can the copper price maintain its momentum and keep its gains? Let’s explore our latest copper price forecast for 2024, 2025, and beyond up to 2030.

Copper Price Predictions Summary

5 Factors Affecting Copper Prices in 2024

How much is copper worth? As of November 18, the LME copper price was trading around $9,035 per ton, about 17% below the record high reached in May 2024. It has gained 5.63% year-to-date (YTD) and 9.3% over the past year.

Let’s examine four factors that will shape the copper price forecast for the rest of 2024, 2025, and 2030.

Copper Underpin by Robust Power Demand

While copper demand from the construction sector still struggles, particularly as China’s real estate sector has remained underperforming, rising demand from decarbonization and electricity consumption is expected to support the red metal. Deploying renewable energy and meeting new power demand will require new investment in power infrastructure, such as building new generation capacity and grid infrastructure.

Copper has remained a preferred metal for making lines and cables due to its superior ability to conduct electricity and heat effectively. ANZ Research, in a note on November 7, estimated that new grids account for 14% of global copper demand, representing 4mt in 2024. The broader electrical network’s share of total new copper demand reaches 29%, which translates to an additional 30mt of copper required.

Asia, led by China and India, will contribute over half of global additions, ANZ Research wrote. Additional demand will also come from the US where investment in new grids is rising, driven by renewable energy capacity additions and rising demand for electricity from battery and semiconductor facilities, as well as data centres.

Extreme weather in recent years has added pressure to electricity grids as demand for cooling has continued to increase.

Daniel Hynes and Soni Kumari, analysts at ANZ Research, said in a note on November 7:

“This should provide a strong offset to ongoing sluggishness in demand for copper from the manufacturing sector amid headwinds in the global economy.”

China is anticipated to lead investment in power infrastructure as it continues to push for renewable energy. The country’s investment in its power grid is picking up, increasing demand for medium- and high-voltage cables used in transmission line, the bank said.

ANZ Research forecasts China’s copper demand to grow by? 6% to 8% between now and the end of the decade as the country ramps up its energy security and accelerates electrification.

Investment in new grids in the US is anticipated to contribute to stronger global demand for copper. In 2025, ANZ Research expects the US electricity to grow almost 4%, up from 1% in 2024 driven by demand from some of the battery and semiconductor chip manufacturing facilities currently under development.

Beyond power grids, copper has also become increasingly critical in electric vehicles (EVs), wind power, and solar energy in recent years. In EVs, copper is utilized not only for cables and wires but also for inverters, charging stations, batteries, and electric motors. Similarly, wind turbines extensively employ copper in generator coils, transformers, and electrical cables.

ANZ Research has kept its copper demand projection from the electricity sector on November 7, reaching 38.5mt in 2030 from a previous forecast of 31.5mt for the year. The copper projection represents annual growth of 4% to 5% over the next five years.

“In the short term, we expect global economic weakness to be offset by rising

demand from the clean energy sector,” wrote Hynes and Kumari.

Potential Supply Deficit

Copper supply may face challenges in meeting demand this year and next year as some mines struggle to recover production amid rising costs and various obstacles. This includes the prolonged halt of operations at the Cobre mine in Panama, which is operated by Toronto-based miner First Quantum Minerals.

First Quantum Minerals, on November 28, 2023, announced it shut down its Cobre Panama mine, one of the world’s largest open pit mines, after Panama’s Supreme Court declared a law that approved the mine’s contract as unconstitutional. The decision came following a blockade by locals at a port and road to the mine.

On August 16, BHP reached a preliminary pay deal with striking workers at Escondida mine in Chile, ending a three-day strike and avoiding output disruptions at the world’s largest copper mine.

In a note on August 15, ANZ Research’s Hynes and Kumari estimated 370kt of copper supply disruptions for the rest of 2024 despite only a fraction of mines being in labor negotiations that resulted in strike action.

Previously in May, Hynes and Kumari estimated that growth in copper mine supply is likely to fall to 4% in 2024 after the shutdown of the Cobre mine in Panama and lower production elsewhere. They added that the closure of Cobre Panama could push the concentrate market into a deficit.

Additionally, rising costs have forced some miners to lower their production in 2024, further squeezing the concentrate market.

For instance, AngloAmerican, London-listed miner, has set copper production guidance at 730-790kt for 2024, lower than the 2023 output of 826kt. Brazilian miner Vale aims to produce between 320kt and 355kt of copper in 2024, compare to 2023 output of 326.6kt.

Furthermore, bringing supply from new copper projects to the market will be equally challenging as the current copper price is not high enough to cover development costs.

Citing data from global consulting firm Wood Mackenzie, ANZ Research noted that the weighted average total cash cost for global copper supply last year was up 25% to $4,425/t from 2019. According to ANZ Research’s calculation, a 300kt copper mine will need prices around $12,000/t to achieve a 10% rate of return.

“Longer term, the ongoing investment required to offset operational issues such as declining grades comes under question amid rising costs. Escondida needs a huge processing capacity expansion, but the economics of this project are questionable. With such regular disruptions, the argument for pursuing lower-risk brownfield options is being undermined,” Hynes and Kumari wrote on August 15.

China Copper Capacity

Chinese top copper smelters agreed to start production cuts at some loss-making plants to cope with a shortage of raw material, Reuters reported on 13 March. The specific rates or volumes for the cuts have not been set.

The move came after spot treatment and refining charges (TCs/RCs) fell to record lows recently as Chinese producers scrambled for copper concentrates amid disruptions at mines and the expansion of global copper smelting capacity.

TCs/RCs are fees paid by mining companies to smelters to have their semi-processed ore or concentrate processed into refined or finished metal. A shortage of raw material supply typically leads to a drop in TCs and RCs.

China has been expanding its copper smelting capacity to anticipate demand from the green energy sector, such as electric vehicles (EVs), wind and solar power.

ANZ Research, in a note on March 5, stated that the expansion of smelting capacity supported China’s refined copper production to hit above 1 million tons in 2023.

Despite slumping spot treatment charges and the planned production cut, China’s refined copper output has remained robust.

Bloomberg reported on November 11, 2024, that China’s refined copper production has increased by 5% so far this year. China doesn’t ship much of its refined copper output overseas, but that could change if the country continues to expand its smelting capacity.

Chinese smelters compete not just for raw materials with one another but also with new copper smelters that have sprouted in other parts of the world.

In a note on October 8, BMI – a country and industry risk research company that is part of Fitch Solutions -– predicted refined copper production to grow by 3.6% year-over-year (y-o-y), supported by Chinese expansion capacity and additional output from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

However, the growth is slower compared to the 4.7% y-o-y growth seen in 2023, as supply issues at major mines will continue to pose downside risks to copper concentrate supply growth, putting pressure on refined copper output, according to BMI.

China Economic Stimulus

Since late September, China has introduced a slew of new economic measures, including multiple interest rate cuts, eased mortgage repayment terms, and an additional one trillion yuan injection to support the economy amid its struggle to meet a 5% growth target for 2024.

The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) has stepped in to ease borrowing restrictions for home buying by reducing mortgage rates for existing homes by about 0.5 percentage points, aligning them with new loans, and reducing the minimum down payment for second homes from 25% to 15%.

On November 7, China approved a 6 trillion yuan plan to help local governments with their mountains of debts, caused by low tax revenues and high spending during the pandemic, as well as a downturn in the property market, Associated Press reported. Local governments rely on revenue from sales of land-use rights.

China’s new economic measures have supported copper prices in recent months. But still, analysts are cautiously optimistic about how the new measures will play out.

Daria Efanova, head of research at the London-based brokerage Sucden Financial, said in a webinar on October 23, 2024:

“China remains dominant, and anything that will come on from the PBOC or the Ministry of Finance would definitely be key in driving copper prices. But again, there’s still pessimism being priced in from the China perspective. And I think markets are now becoming aware that even if the support does come out, we don’t really expect any long-term or fundamental changes in the copper pricing going forward.”

Efanova said it usually takes two to three quarters for any China’s new economic policy to be priced in real-life data.

“So it will take time before we see some real-life results if the support from the economy is substantial.”

Fed’s Rate Policy Under Trump

The US central bank began loosening its monetary tightening cycle with a 50-basis-point cut in September and a smaller 25-basis-point cut in November. The Federal Reserve’s rate-cutting cycle has boosted sentiment in the broader commodity complex, including copper.

Increased rates, which resulted in a stronger US dollar, have weighed on industrial metals over the last two years. A stronger US dollar increases commodity prices for buyers using local currencies.

However, analysts point to a downside risk with Donald Trump’s landslide victory in the US election on November 5.

In a note on November 12, ANZ Research expected one more 25bp cut to the Federal Fund Rate (FFR) this year. The Fed will have one more meeting in December. In 2025, ANZ Research expected three 25bp cuts, followed by slowing the pace of easing.

“Ongoing resilient growth and heightened uncertainty over how the new administration’s policies will impact growth and inflation support a cautious approach to rate cutting,” wrote ANZ Research economists Tom Kenny and Shwetha Sunilkumar on November 12. They revised the FFR up to $3.75% from their previous estimate of 3.50%.

Sharing a cautious tone, BMI predicted in October that the Fed might be more hawkish under Trump.

The Fed is scheduled to hold rate meetings on December 17-18. CME’s FedWatch on November 18 showed that 65% of market participants expected the Fed to keep the Federal Fund Rate unchanged at the 4.25%-4.50% range. On the other hand, 34.7% of participants anticipated the Fed would keep increasing the rates to 4.50%-4.75%.

Another concern is that Trump’s camp has been seeking ways to gain more control over the Fed, including determining interest rates and naming the central bank’s chair. Fed Chairman Jeremy Powell has responded that he would not step down if Trump forces him out of office because the law does not permit it.

Copper Price Forecast 2024

Analysts have mixed projections for the copper price by the end of 2024 on persistent shortages and potentially more stimulus from China to spur economic recovery.

Sucden Financial, in its Q4 copper price trend report, expected a support level at $9,450 and resistance levels at $10,000 and $10,200 for 2024, adding that the brokerage is keeping a moderately bullish stance on copper.

Sucden Financial’s head of research, Daria Efanova, said in the webinar on October 23:

“So, we do see the 10,000 level as a good level around which it will fluctuate and try to test slightly above, slightly below. But again, that’s not necessary to suggest that we’ll see a massive break above 10,000 going forward. So we will continue to watch out for Chinese announcements, any important data from the region, and just trying to gage prices going forward for copper.”

In its latest copper price forecast in October, BMI made an upward adjustiment to its projected copper prices in 2024 to average $9,600 per ton from the estimated $9,200 per ton made in June.

BMI wrote in a note on October 8, 2024:

“Our forecast is slightly above consensus, and we believe strength in copper prices will be driven mainly by positive sentiment over Mainland Chinese stimulus measures and upside risks to Mainland Chinese growth in 2025, and to a smaller extent a slightly weaker US dollar.”

ANZ Research’s recent copper price forecast for 2024 in November expected the metal to trade at $9,217/ton, down from the previous forecast of $9,290 in June but up from $8,490 in 2023.

ANZ Research’s Haynes and Kumari said in a separate copper note on November 14:

“Challenges in copper mine supply are likely to keep the concentrate market tight and reduce the output of refined copper, particularly in China.”

Netherlands-based multinational lender ING also adjusted its copper outlook downward. As of November 7, ING projected that copper would trade at around $9,388/ton, down from $9,535/ton in June.

Reflecting a bearish tone, data provider Trading Economics lowered its copper price forecast to $4.4047/pound in 4Q, as of November 18, from $4.83 in June.

On the other hand, Fitch Ratings revised its copper price forecast for 2024 to $8,800/ton in September, up from $8,600 in June, according to the rating agency’s forecast on September 11.

“The increased 2024 copper assumptions reflect higher prices so far in 2024. Spot prices have been declining in September, after peaking at above USD10,000 a tonne in May, due to concerns about the Chinese and global economies, while supply disruptions have been limited this year,” the rating agency said.

In November, TD Securities projected that copper would finish the year at $4.20 per pound.

Copper Price Forecast 2025

Analysts are divided in their copper price predictions for 2025.

In its copper price forecast for 2025, BMI projected copper to average $11,000, a jump from an estimated $9,600/ton in 2024. It was also up from July’s forecast of $9,400/ton for 2025.

Australia’s OCE was also bullish, expecting copper prices to increase $9,758/ton in 2025 from $9,369 predicted for 2024.

ANZ Research cut its 2025 copper price projections to $9,730/ton as of November 14 from $9,929/ton estimated in June.

For next year, ING also adjusted downward its projected copper prices to $9,775/ton, as of November 7, from its previous forecast of around $9,950/ton.

On the other hand, TD Securities predicted that the copper price would end its rally and begin to decline. The firm expected the red metal to drop to $4.35 per pound in the first quarter of 2025 and stabilize at the price level throughout the year.

TD’s November copper projection was revised downward. It expected the green metal to average $4.45 per pound in the first quarter, decrease further to $4.35 in the second quarter, and remain steady at that level for the remainder of 2025.

For 2025, Fitch Ratings has kept its price forecast from June’s estimate that copper would fall to $8,400 per ton from $8,600 in 2024.

Copper Price Forecast for 2030

There are few copper price forecasts for 2030 available due to a multitude of elements involved and the high level of uncertainty. Analysts, however, were still bullish on their future copper price predictions owing to rising electricity and energy transition demand.

In its quarterly projection in September, the Australian Government’s Office of Chief Economist (OCE) projected copper to rise to $9,766 in 2026 from $9,758/ton estimated for 2025. However, the September forecast was a downward revision from $9,967/ton estimated in the June quarter report.

“The gains will be driven by increased demand for energy transition infrastructure, EVs manufacturing, and construction,” OCE said.

ING’s copper price trend saw the metal trade around $9,900 in 2026, up from $9,775 in 2025.

For 2026, TD Securities also forecast that the copper price would trend higher than in 2025. The company expected copper to trade at $4.37/lb in the first quarter, rising to $4.39/lb in the second quarter and $4.42/lb in the third quarter before settling at $4.44/lb in the final quarter of 2026.

In its copper price analysis, Fitch Ratings maintained its forecast that copper will average $7,500 in 2026 and 2027, a fall from an estimated $8,400 in 2025.

“Longer-term copper demand growth is driven by the energy transition, the pace and scale of which are highly uncertain. Copper consumption will depend on EV adoption rates and copper intensity per vehicle, which has been declining markedly.”

BMI’s copper price forecast for the next 5 years expects the green metal to continue its upward trajectory, reaching $15,800 per ton by 2030, up from the $11,500 projected for 2026, as supply remains constrained and is outpaced by growing demand.

“In the longer term, we expect the copper market to remain in deficit as the green transition accelerates along with the demand for ‘green’ metals, including copper. Copper is required in almost every aspect of the green energy transition. This will push the market into greater deficit and drive prices higher towards the end of the decade. ”

Furthermore, BMI stated that the global construction industry will continue to experience growth, driving copper demand beyond the energy transition.

The Bottom Line

A supply shortfall and expectations of more stimulus from China to push its economy were expected to become tailwinds for copper prices this year. However, uncertainties remain about whether China’s stimulus will be enough to recover the country’s demand.

In the long term, copper will remain elevated, supported by the energy transition drive and rising electricity demand, which will require more copper-intensive materials.

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