Casino Myths Busted: You Can Tell if a Slot Machine is Hot or Cold

Do slot machines run hot and cold? Are some games hotter than others?

Once again: a lot of these myths are subject to interpretation. What is the real question, here?

When we talk about a ‘hot’ slot, do we mean the frequency of wins? If that is the case then: yes, some machines do pay out more frequently than others. It’s called volatility.

Or, is it the common mistake to think that because a slot machine that hasn’t paid out for hours, a jackpot is due to hit (a classic example of?the gambler’s fallacy).

Let’s give both options a spin.

But, first: let’s get the ABC on RTP.

Understanding RTP

To understand volatility and the gambler’s fallacy, you need to get to grips with RTP: the Return to Player.

All games, both?real money online slots?and the machines you find at the casino, comes with an RTP.

It represents the average return a player will receive as winnings, playing the game over a period of time.

For example: a slot with an RTP of 98% will return 98 cents for every dollar you risk. The two cents left over is the casino’s profit.

According to industry watchdogs, the UK Gambling Commission, a slot is played at least?10,000 times to calculate its RTP, so you shouldn’t expect to win back the number displayed as the RTP every time you play.

You can learn more about?slots odds and probabilities?in our dedicated guide.

Volatility

Slot machines must reveal their RTP. Every online gaming software developer must provide this information.

If you’re playing at one of the?best online casinos, just click the game and the RTP is there to see.

Casinos can also choose to reveal the volatility of their slots. This is not compulsory but is increasingly popular. Volatility is the frequency at which a game pays out.

Both types of slot might share the same RTP. A low volatility game is busy, with lots of action and frequent, smaller, wins.

A high volatility game will have you sitting on the edge of your seat, waiting for a fat jackpot to hit.

So, you could make the case that a low volatility machine is hotter, because there is more action; more winning combinations and flashing lights.

The truth is: it is simply paying its declared RTP at a different pace.

The Gambler’s Fallacy

The gambler’s fallacy is simple and it sounds like this: “That number is definitely going to hit soon!”

Basically, if you flip a coin 100 times and it comes up heads every time,? the chance of it coming up tails on the 101st flip is still even money – 50/50.

It’s the same with roulette. Even if red lands 20 times in a row, it doesn’t mean that black is any more likely to land on spin 21. It’s still 50/50 (if we discount the zero).

Each bet is 50/50. The history is irrelevant.

The gambler’s fallacy is an understandable human reaction, created by the illusion of bias.

If an online slot hasn’t paid out for hours, it’s tempting to think that it must be due to hit a win soon.

In reality, the odds don’t change. They are still the same. The result is determined by a random number generator (RNG) so there is no way to tell if a slot machine is ‘hot’ and about to hit.

(However, quick caveat: mechanical devices can have a physical anomaly which may affect their predicted outcome; especially true of roulette wheels. Check out?the case of Gonzalo García-Pelayo).

Finally: The Plot Twist…

Although there’s no way to tell whether modern machines or online slots are hot, there is a plot twist.

If you’re a fan of old-fashioned fruit machines and mechanical slots, there is some truth to this myth.

Even today, some casinos have what are called ‘compensated slot machines’. These coin-operated machines will pay out more frequently, when they are full; often triggered by the weight of the coins.

The wins are still random but the frequency will increase. So, maybe it is worth putting in the hours and staking out that slot. It could be about to blow…

Hmmm… Myth semi-busted…