Oscar’s Grind (Roulette)

Martingale, Cuban, Fibonacci, Labouchere, Paroli, and now, Oscar’s Grind.

History of Oscar’s Grind

The Oscar’s Grind betting system was first documented by Allan Wilson, in his 1965 book The Casino Gambler’s Guide.

Wilson was fascinated by both the system and its inventor: a craps player called Oscar.

In his book, he wrote:

This is one of the most intriguing systems that I have ever run across. It was shown to me by a dice player who had used it consistently over a period of several years to win the price of many weekend trips to Las Vegas.

To be sure, he was prepared to risk a considerable sum in backing up the play.

Nonetheless I was amazed that in the long time he worked it, there was never a session of losses rough enough to discourage him from pulling each sequence through to a successful conclusion. He was very lucky indeed.

Every single roulette system is basically a flawed masterpiece; a mathematical formula that never quite adds up.

Most are based on increasing the stake after a loss. Many require deep pockets to work. They also all require a lot of luck.

Whatever system you employ, the roulette house edge never changes. What Oscar’s Grind is, essentially, is a form of bankroll management.

How Oscar’s Grind Works

What makes Oscar’s Grind work is its moderate nature. This is not a system for the impatient or the impetuous. If you want it to be effective, you need to be disciplined, measured and patient.

It also – unlike many other systems – raises the bet after a win; most systems double down, when you lose.

There are a few elements to the Oscar’s Grind betting system that make it fairly unique.

When you gain a net profit of just one unit (your stake), you restart the sequence
You increase your stake by one unit, only when you win
You always bet only enough to win by a single unit

oscar's grind - outside roulette table bets — Image: Javon Swaby/Pexels

Let’s break it down.

To keep things simple. We will stake one dollar. This is the ‘unit’.

You bet one unit. If you win, the sequence is over. You start again.

The sequence always restarts when you are ahead by a single unit (there’s a reason why this is called a ‘grind’!)

If you lose, you must bet the same unit amount again.

If you lose again, you still bet only a single unit.

This is the differentiator. Unlike many other betting systems, you don’t double up when you lose. You increase your bet when you win.

If you win, you increase your next bet by a single unit (+1)

If you win again, you increase your bet by a single unit (+2)

If you lose, your bet stays the same (+2)

However: you adjust your bet so that you can only ever win by a single unit.

As soon as you are one unit ahead, you restart the sequence.

In the chart below, you can see a variety of scenarios. It’s impractical to show every iteration, but this is a good selection.

The most interesting sequence is the five consecutive losses. Here you can see that when the player wins, and increases the bet by a single unit, it takes only three bets to get back to a single unit of profit.

Oscar’s Grind Step-by-Step

oscar's grind - step by step

In the following sequence, a six-long losing streak is cleared in four plays.

Note: the last bet is for a single unit. This is because you must bet only enough to get your balance to +1.

STAKE	1	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	3	1
RESULT	LOSE	LOSE	LOSE	LOSE	LOSE	LOSE	WIN	WIN	WIN	WIN
BALANCE	-1	-2	-3	-4	-5	-6	-5	-3	0	+1

In this sequence, we will have a roller-coaster of wins and losses. Again: the final bet is reduced to 2 units, ensuring the final win is +1.

Also note that the bet size stays at +2, following the win.

STAKE	1	1	1	1	1	1	2	2	2	3	2
RESULT	LOSE	WIN	LOSE	LOSE	LOSE	WIN	LOSE	LOSE	WIN	WIN	WIN
BALANCE	-1	0	-1	-2	-3	-2	-4	-6	-4	-1	+1

Finally, let’s go crazy and look at a really long sequence.

Oscar’s Grind is undeniably a great way to manage your bankroll and your betting. You will need to have a good head for numbers to stay on top of it.

Once again: you can see in the bolded cell that the stake drops to two following a win, instead of increasing by a single unit. This ensures the final win is not greater than +1.

STAKE	1	1	1	1	2	2	3	3	3	4	2	2	2	3	1
RESULT	LOSE	LOSE	LOSE	WIN	LOSE	WIN	LOSE	LOSE	WIN	WIN	LOSE	LOSE	WIN	WIN	WIN
BALANCE	-1	-2	-3	-2	-4	-2	-5	-8	-5	-1	-3	-5	-3	0	+1

Oscar’s Grind: Suitable Games

Oscar’s Grind is really only suitable for games with a 50/50 pay-out.

These include:

Roulette – odd/even, red/black, high/low
Craps – pass/don’t pass, come/don’t come
Baccarat – player or banker
Blackjack – basic strategy

Using Oscar’s Grind as a blackjack strategy is slightly controversial because Oscar’s Grind doesn’t litigate for 3/2 blackjack wins. If you treat these as 50/50 wins, you can still use the system.

Oscar’s Grind is perfect for streaky games. It minimizes your losses when your luck is down.

Alternatively, when you are on a winning run, you can rapidly reverse the losses with incremental increases in the stake.

Testing Oscar’s Grind

Like any other mathematical casino system, Oscar’s Grind is nothing more than clever bankroll management.

It doesn’t affect the overall chances of winning. The house edge at online casinos remains the same.

When Allan Wilson first discovered the system, it was being played by a craps player who gambled exclusively on the pass line; one of the lowest house edges in the casino, at 1.414%. (Double zero roulette is 5.263% by comparison).

Wilson tested Oscar’s system on an IBM 790 mainframe computer, state of the art in 1965. He set the machine up to randomly roll the dice and increment the bets, as per the Oscar’s Grind formula

Here’s the result as described in his book:

Of the 280,000 sequences simulated on the computer, 66 were disastrous; the maximum allowed bet level of $500 was reached, and the sequences had to be abandoned at an average loss of about $13,100.

The frequency of occurrence of the disastrous sequences was 66/280,000, or about 1/4250.

The 66 fiascos yielded a deficit of about $864,000; on the other hand, the 279,934 successful sequences produced a gain of exactly that many dollars, which can be rounded to $280,000.

The net loss, therefore, was $584,000. It is very instructive to note that the cumulative total amount wagered for all sequences was recorded as $40 million.

Hence, the fraction extracted by the casino in this simulation of a month-long system play was 584,000/40,000,000 = 0.0146, or 1.46 percent. This figure is remarkably close to the theoretical edge of 1.414 percent.

The moral of the story is that the percentage extracted from the total amount bet in a long, complicated marathon is identical with the theoretical percentage as figured for a single decision of the dice—which is exactly as it should be! Indeed, were this not true, you could think up many a paradox.

Wilson went on to describe his ‘thorough analysis of an intricate betting system’ and computer simulation as a ‘coup de grace’ for ‘this novel system’.

Proof – once again – that although a single disastrous event might appear to be remotely small, the cumulative effect always ends in failure. In other words: the house always wins.

And Finally…

If you acknowledge and accept the basic reality of house odds, Oscar’s Grind is a fun – and conservative – way to manage your bankroll at the casino.

Instead of chasing losses and dumping chips, like in the Martingale system, Oscar’s Grind introduces some method to the madness.

The system will extend your time at the tables and it takes a very short sequence of wins to get you back to where you started.

However, that’s also its problem. It’s not called a grind for nothing. If your goal is a modest victory, and a one-unit gain, then spend some time with Oscar. The spills are manageable but the thrills are hard to find.