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The Bitcoin (BTC) price can never catch a break. It’s always on the move, reacting to any market news either positively or negatively. It briefly surged over $70,000 in March and even reached an all-time high of $71,000, but it has been unable to beat past records ever since.
The BTC price dropped to $53,000 at the start of September before stabilizing at about $60,000 by the beginning of October.
Could BTC surpass previous highs again in 2025, or is this the perfect time to sell? In this article, we explore what investors should keep in mind when conducting a Bitcoin price analysis before deciding to buy or sell BTC.
Key Takeaways
- Bitcoin has experienced significant price fluctuations in 2024, dropping to around $53,000 in September 2024 before stabilizing near $60,000 by the beginning of October.
- Promising developments, such as U.S. interest rate cuts and SEC approval for Bitcoin options, could create a positive environment for BTC in Q4 2024.
- Escalating geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have introduced uncertainty into global markets, impacting Bitcoin’s price. Investors are wary, as conflicts can disrupt supply chains and lead to increased volatility in digital assets.
- The outcome of the upcoming U.S. elections could significantly affect Bitcoin’s future.
- As new, often inexperienced participants enter the cryptocurrency market, education and awareness become essential.
What Is Driving the Bitcoin Price Today?
One of the biggest questions crypto investors have is what are some of the key events driving the Bitcoin price chart today.
From the cryptocurrency’s own limitations and a more diverse crypto market to much broader events, such as decisions to cut back on interest rate hikes, BTC has been known to react dramatically to the latest economic, tech, and geopolitical news.
Tailwinds & Cautious Territories
Coinbase’s “Weekly: Takeaways From Token2049” report, released at the end of September 2024, stated that Q4 could be a constructive period for the BTC price amid promises of rate cuts in the United States and monetary stimulus from China, which could drive more liquidity and support the token’s future performance.
That, paired with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) approval of options on iShares Bitcoin Trust, could help the cryptocurrency climb past its previously achieved all-time high of $71,000 in March.
However, despite a seemingly positive environment, cryptocurrency experts continue to tread cautiously when it comes to betting bullish on the future of the BTC price amid escalating geopolitical tensions and the upcoming U.S. elections.
Escalating Tensions in the Middle East
With Israel’s troops entering Lebanon and fears of a much broader outbreak of war in the Middle East, the global economy is entering cautious territory.
While the immediate impact on global markets has been limited, this marks the second major geopolitical conflict following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine. Wars in key regions could potentially disrupt supply chains, leading to increased volatility in digital assets, including BTC, as investors look for safe-haven alternatives.
Speaking with Techopedia, Michael Terpin, the founder and CEO of Transform Ventures, a blockchain advisory and venture studio, explained that in the short term, the fear and greed index for BTC pushed below 38, signalling high levels of fear in the market and indicating that investors are overly cautious when dealing with certain assets.
“This is all about the conflict in Israel with Gaza that is now extended into a war, potentially a significant one. With Iran getting involved, that could potentially draw in other players like China, Russia, and the United States, a scenario which could play out in the stock market. We will find out in the next few weeks how quickly this escalates, if it evolves into something more significant involving other players or not.”
Stuart Connolly, the CIO at Deus X Capital, further highlighted that the escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East led to a recent sell-off, forcing the BTC price to drop from $65,000 at the end of September to about $60,000 by the time of writing (October 4).
Uncertainty Around U.S. Election Outcome
Connolly explained that the macro environment continues to improve as we approach the end of the year, with crypto liquidity and sentiment on the rise. However, external factors, such as the conflict in the Middle East and the upcoming US election, continue to make the BTC price wary.
“Should a Trump administration come into office, this will almost certainly act as a tailwind for BTC, but the Harris camp has come out and materially softened their anti-crypto stance in recent weeks, which suggests that prices could remain steady with potential upside in either case,” Connoly told Techopedia.
Dr. Tonya M. Evans, ESQ, author of Digital Money Demystified and a professor at Penn State Dickinson Law, added that the uncertainty on where crypto regulation could be headed post-election will be a significant driver in the direction the BTC price trend will go in. She said:
“Investors may adopt a wait-and-see approach as they gauge how future policies could affect the crypto market??.”
The Fed Is Cutting Rates
Steering away from major geopolitical events that are playing key roles in Bitcoin’s price today, Federal Reserve Chair, Jerome Powell, has hinted that moving forward the Fed will continue to consider more interest rate cuts.
During a Federal Reserve meeting on September 18, the U.S. government official decided to lower interest rates by 50 basis points – an economic win, seeing this is the first reduction in over four years.
In a statement released by Powell on September 30, the Chair highlighted that the U.S. government is confident inflation rates in the country could move sustainability down to 2%.
“Looking forward, if the economy evolves broadly as expected, policy will move over time toward a more neutral stance.”
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Analyst Views for 2024 & 2025
Despite all the worrisome factors, industry experts remain bullish, highlighting that the Bitcoin price chart could totally rise past the $70,000 mark in 2025.
Transform Ventures’ Terpin is extremely bullish on the BTC price, noting that it could even break past the $70,000 barrier post-election, irrespectively whether Trump or Harris win the race.
He further explains that the current dip cycle is a normal phenomenon for the BTC price, quoting Satoshi Nakamoto’s whitepaper:
“If you go back to Satoshi’s whitepaper, [their] whole reasoning behind the halving was that every four years, as long as the number of new [BTC] users goes up, higher than the amount of Bitcoin, then the price has to go up. It doesn’t go up in a straight line, it goes through the normal cycles of fear and greed.”
Deus X Capital’s Connolly was ready to bet even bigger bets on where BTC could be headed in 2025, noting that it could surpass $150,000 by the end of the following year.
“We believe rate cuts and global stimulus will increase. We believe the US regulatory situation will also improve, and institutions continue to commit huge amounts of capital to the industry. Barring any major or global risk events, we expect to see Bitcoin above $150,000 by the end of 2025.”
Dr. Evans added that with the broader acceptance of Bitcoin ETFs, the cryptocurrency has the potential to attract more institutional investors, thus also driving the BTC price.
However, Dr. Evans also highlighted the importance of balancing predictions with the increased risks to investors, especially as we face a shifting political and macroeconomic landscape.
“With the potential for bullish cycles on the horizon, there is an influx of new and often inexperienced participants entering the market. It is critical to ensure that investors, especially those from historically marginalized communities, are armed with the knowledge and tools to navigate the complexities of the digital asset space??.
“Clear, transparent regulations combined with robust educational initiatives will be essential to ensuring that all market participants are protected as we head into what could be another period of rapid growth??.”
The Bottom Line
Bitcoin’s trajectory in 2024 has been marked by volatility, influenced by both macroeconomic factors and internal market dynamics.
After reaching a peak earlier in the year, BTC faced a sharp decline to around $53,000 in September, only to stabilize at approximately $60,000 as October began.
Promising developments, such as potential interest rate cuts and the SEC’s approval of options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust, suggest a constructive outlook for Q4. However, geopolitical tensions and the uncertainty surrounding the upcoming U.S. elections have kept investors cautious.
The potential for BTC to surpass previous highs remains, but careful consideration of the surrounding risks will be essential for informed decision-making.
FAQs
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References
- Takeaways from Token2049 – Coinbase Institutional Weekly Market Commentary (Coinbase)
- Notice of Filing of Amendment Nos. 4 and 5 and Order Granting Accelerated Approval of a Proposed Rule Change, as Modified by Amendment Nos. 1, 4, and 5, to Permit the Listing and Trading of Options on the iShares Bitcoin Trust (Sec)
- Transform Group | Leader in blockchain public relations, advisory, events (Transform Group)
- Deus X Capital (Deusx)
- Digital Money Demystified – Your First Mover Advantage in the Web3 Economy (Digital Money Demystified)
